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Category: WHITE HOUSE RACE

UK pollsters should follow the firm that created the industry and move on from party vote shares

UK pollsters should follow the firm that created the industry and move on from party vote shares

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Gallup Arguably Gallup has the right approach for the future The screen grab above is from the Election 2016 page of Gallup – the firm that created modern political polling in the 1930s. Its busy with lots of data, analysis and often excellent insights but one thing that you won’t find are voting intention polls. After a lacklustre performance with its voting numbers at WH2012 the firm took the strategic decision to drop that aspect for WH2016 and focus on…

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Two weeks to go until Iowa: White House Race Round up

Two weeks to go until Iowa: White House Race Round up

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Via @mtomasky My favourite Twitter pic of the weekend pic.twitter.com/Ps6MPVx08o — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2016 Hillary to be Democratic nominee now 82.6% chance on Betfair following overnight debate success pic.twitter.com/AB2dbxv4Ag — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2016 From. Pew Research. How the US has become more ideologically dividedpic.twitter.com/HQVJTWJ3ua — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2016 Via @politicalwire Gallup favourability of GOP contenders. Look at how hated Trump is amongst Democrats pic.twitter.com/XRHFHUN36B — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 16, 2016

A reminder that national nomination polls at this stage in White House races have to be treated with caution

A reminder that national nomination polls at this stage in White House races have to be treated with caution

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Real Clear Poitics Why for betting state polling is a better pointer Every day at the moment the excellent Real Clear Politics site is putting up the above table showing the national polling average for the Republican nomination compared with what it was at this stage in the 2012 and 2008 races. As can be seen the national averages from the last two Presidential elections bore no relation to who in fact won the Republican party nominations. The reason is…

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The GOP Race: It’s hard now to see beyond Trump, Cruz or Rubio

The GOP Race: It’s hard now to see beyond Trump, Cruz or Rubio

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Punters still don’t quite believe in Trump The screen grab at the top is from Fox News and shows the line up of GOP contenders to this week’s TV debate. The ranking numbers are based on where they currently stand in the national polling. Below that my chart shows the latest betting on the Betfair exchange. These are not odds set by the bookie but actual market prices of trades at 2pm this afternoon. Although Trump is well ahead in…

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Just three weeks to go and two new polls put Trump back in the lead in Iowa

Just three weeks to go and two new polls put Trump back in the lead in Iowa

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https://twitter.com/PaulLewis/status/686279815507255296 Trump ahead in Quinnipiac Iowa poll Trump 31%Cruz 29%Rubio 15%Carson 7%Christie 4% Caucus voting 3 weeks tonight — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2016 Another Iowa poll has Trump ahead – ARGTrump 29%Cruz 25%Rubio 10%Carson 8%Christie 6% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2016 Three weeks on from tonight meetings will be taking place in each of the 1600+ precincts in Iowa at the start of the WH2016 nomination process. Both the Republicans and Democrats have caucuses at the…

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Trump could take New Hampshire with just 29% because opposition to him is split amongst so many opponents

Trump could take New Hampshire with just 29% because opposition to him is split amongst so many opponents

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The first full primary is only a month away The big political betting story over the next few weeks is going to be the fight for the Republican nomination in the first states to decide. In Iowa, with it caucuses where people vote at precinct meetings it’s looking pretty good for Ted Cruz who is strong favourite. The second state is New Hampshire, with its full primary, on February 9th and here Donald Trump has been in a strong position…

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