George Eaton’s analysis is right Tories have now pulled votes on fox hunting, EVEL and Human Rights Act – proof that a majority of 12 is barely a majority at all. — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) July 14, 2015
David Herdson on a crucial weekend If there were any doubt that David Cameron is a lucky politician, events in Europe this last week have again made the point. No sooner had he suffered a setback at the European Council, failing to win a chance of treaty reform, than the Greek government gives him (inadvertently, no doubt), a huge helping hand. The decision of Alexis Tsipras to commit his government to destruction by a method to be determined by the…
Cameron could win the vote and still lose his job Selling the deal to the country was always going to be the easy bit. The tough ask for David Cameron is selling it to his party. The outcome of this week’s summit is, in that sense, one step forwards and two steps back. Simply getting the issue formally into the EU’s ongoing agenda was an achievement but one that is heavily diluted by the acceptance that there’ll be no treaty…
How much should we attach to the famous Landale interview? Whenever people discuss the next election they will invariably point out that the Tories will not, unlike 2010 and 2015, be led by David Cameron. All this is based on the televised kitchen conversation that the PM had with the BBC’s James Landale in March a week or so before the official campaign began. My reading after watching the video again is that this was not a firm commitment to…
The numbers look potentially tricky A key moment in the last parliament was in July 2012 when CON back-bench rebels voted down a timetable motion on the Lords Reform bill thus making it highly unlikely that it would get through the house. A few days later Cameron pulled the plans completely – a move that led to Mr. Clegg pulling the plug on boundary reform. So the upper house remains unreformed something that could be tricky for the government as…
Dramatic Tweet exchange with Andrew Neil Spoke to major Tory donor tonight. "Tory campaign useless. Cameron's heart not in it. Not looking good". — Andrew Neil (@afneil) April 21, 2015 @afneil DC has wanted out for a while. He has just wanted to go out on some sort of high and hasn't been able to find that high. — Tim Montgomerie Ù† (@montie) April 21, 2015 This is not the sort of message that the Tories want to come out…
The 2nd & 3rrd favourites for the CON leadership sitting either side of Cameron at PMQs pic.twitter.com/e8LuRnRgXm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2015 A new Guardian/ICM poll, just issued, of those planning to watch tomorrow’s C4 leaders’programme finds voters split 38-38 on Cameron’s 3rd term announcement As you’d expect Tom Clarke in the Guardian reports a partisan split in the responses. His report notes that with CON supporters, 56% to 27% believe his move was right. Among LAB supporters,…