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Category: CON Leadership

TMay’s desire to fight the next election makes a challenge this autumn more likely

TMay’s desire to fight the next election makes a challenge this autumn more likely

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.@nicholaswatt speaks to former Downing St adviser @CraigOliver100 about Theresa May's ambition to stay beyond the next election #newsnight pic.twitter.com/N1VnMGieoB — BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) August 30, 2017 Feels like the reaction among Tory MPs to May saying she'll fight on is "Lol, you're not" not "Oh dear, better putsch her early". — Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) August 30, 2017 Maybe the plan is to bring things to a head By announcing overnight her desire to carry on as CON leader and…

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Punters make it a 77% chance that TMay’ll make it to the end of the year which seems about right

Punters make it a 77% chance that TMay’ll make it to the end of the year which seems about right

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Will the PM face a challenge or not? In the immediate aftermath of the disappointing general election for the Conservatives George Osborne suggested that the the Prime Minister was “a dead woman walking” a view that was shared by many who expected an early resignation. The Tories, after all, are the party that is said to be most ruthless with a failing leader and in those few days after the election she was at her most vulnerable. Yet she didn’t…

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From Core TV – focus on PB, Brexit, the “Democrats”, the Tory leadership and more

From Core TV – focus on PB, Brexit, the “Democrats”, the Tory leadership and more

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No David Herdson with his usual Saturday morning post this morning but instead this TV feature on PB and many of the issues we’ve been discussing on the site over the past few weeks. This interview, by Rob Double, was recorded yesterday afternoon for Core TV the new online news and politics channel. My views and assessments won’t be unfamiliar to regular PBers. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Johnson the big loser – Rees-Mogg the big winner in the CON leadership betting since the election

Johnson the big loser – Rees-Mogg the big winner in the CON leadership betting since the election

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Given that the loss of the CON overall majority at general election happened less than ten weeks it is quite extraordinary to look back at the change in TMay replacement betting since then. In the aftermath of TMay’s failure to retain a majority the general assumption was that she’d quit within days and we’d be into to another leadership contest. The other assumption was that if Johnson could get through to the final round of voting, which is amongst the…

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Jacob Rees-Mogg heads for the favourite slot in the TMay successor betting as the DDavis decline continues

Jacob Rees-Mogg heads for the favourite slot in the TMay successor betting as the DDavis decline continues

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Betdata.io A silly season story we can ignore or a real possibility? The betting chart above shows the dramatic changes there’ve been in the CON leadership Betfair betting over the weekend with interest in the once clear favourite, Davd Davis, moving down sharply and the extraordinary rise of back-bencher Jacob Rees-Mogg. William Hill reported last night that ““There is definitely some momentum behind Jacob Rees-Mogg and in the last month he has been the most popular candidate by far”. The…

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In spite of her general election humiliation TMay still leads in the “who’d make the best PM” polling

In spite of her general election humiliation TMay still leads in the “who’d make the best PM” polling

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Corbyn isn’t seen as an alternative There’s little doubt that if the general election had been on May 4th, local election day, then Mrs. May would have got her landslide. The general election polling that was coming out at the time with leads of 15%/20% was broadly reflected in the way that the country voted in the range of elections on that day. The build up to that Thursday, and her dramatic visit to the Palace on May 3rd and…

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Whatever happened to the summer LAB leadership contest which looked all set to be an annual fixture?

Whatever happened to the summer LAB leadership contest which looked all set to be an annual fixture?

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For the first time for years an August without active political betting markets One of the things about running a website about political betting is that we need events on which we can risk our money. Summer is generally a quiet time particularly in August but over the past couple of years we have had the spectacle of a Labour leadership contest both of which were won by Mr Corbyn. In August 2016, as well, we were less than three…

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Chancellor Hammond may not be PM (yet) but he’s the one currently running the show & shaping Brexit

Chancellor Hammond may not be PM (yet) but he’s the one currently running the show & shaping Brexit

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He alone appears competent and in control Today’s Times front page is the latest reminder of the rise and rise of Chancellor Philip Hammond in the government suggesting that he’s positioning himself as the next party leader and PM. A good indication of Hammond’s new status is that the both the Mail and the Sun, tabloids that until 10pm on June 8th 2017 were widely regarded as politically influential, are making strong attacks. Trevor Kavanagh in the Sun calls him…

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