Chart Betdata.io Will it be PM Boris by the end of the year? On the Betfair TMay exit year market TMay the 65% favourite for when she will step down as Party leader and Prime Minister is 2019. This suggests that there’s likely to be a leadership contest this year and no doubt the events that are taking place today in Westminster will have an impact on the eventual outcome of that. A lot of eyes will be on…
A guest slot betting tip from Woody662 I’m sure those political obsessives amongst us all remember the ‘Party Games’ episode of Yes Minister where 2 candidates on the extremes of the party were frontrunners for the post, only for the civil service to conspire to see them withdraw in favour of a compromise candidate. Sir Humphrey and Sir Arnold listed their requirements ‘malleable, flexible, likeable, No firm opinions, no bright ideas ect’ and eventually arrived, to initial self-amusement, at Jim…
Corbyn's net Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings drop from a net minus 32% to 55%. Chart from @standardnews pic.twitter.com/w7YRizjdmJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 8, 2019 These looks being the worst LAB leader ratings on record The latest Ipsos-MORI voting intention figure have LAB and CON level pegging which puts the pollsters out of line with Opinium and YouGov which both have CON leads of seven points. But there’s a shock for the LAB leader in the firm’s satisfaction ratings which have…
Betdata.io But it really could be just about anyone David Herdson’s header this morning about the LAB leadership is a reminder that we haven’t looked at the TMay successor betting for some time. Given that a 2019 Conservative leadership contest is much more likely than a LAB one then we should really keep an eye on it. The chart shows the extraordinary rise in early January of Michael Gove who has now established himself with a solid lead, in the…
Chart Betdata.io Given the precariousness of Theresa May’s position a new Tory leader contest could happen at just about any time. In one sense she is immune from pressure within the party until December because of the failed confidence vote that the rebels triggered and which Theresa May won with a clear margin. The rules state that a leader cannot be challenged again within 12 months but so much is happening at the moment you could see all sorts of…
The ambitious Osborne protégé who wasn’t purged by Theresa Over the weekend I’ve been trying to look through other possible contenders for TMay’s job which might become vacant in a matter of weeks or a few months. Who are the dark horses who might be a good punt at long odds? Of all the Tory ministers who have been wheeled out recent weeks to argue the government’s Brexit position two of them, to my mind, stand out. One is the…
Moggsy’s failed confidence move gives her 12 months immunity On the day of this month’s confidence vote amongst Tory MPs on Theresa May the PM declared that it was her intention not to lead the party into the next general election. If we stick with the Fixed Term Parliament Act timetable that means any time before the spring of 2022. That might have helped her in fending off Moggsy’s ill-judged move which also provided her with the additional bonus that…
I rather like this betting market which asks which of the two events will happen first – Theresa May ceasing to be Prime Minister or the UK actually leaving the EU. With uncertainties over both events this is quite a good match. My guess as we get closer to the March 29th article 50 deadline that this will see a fair bit of activity and no doubt the leave EU price will move to the favourite slot if the Theresa…