If I’ve made a mistake or you have better info then please email me ASAP. Mike Smithson For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB
Groupthink can be a most dangerous thing. To listen to many commentators, analysts and indeed many politicians, such is the consensus that you might believe that the election was all over and the result in; that result being Con and Lab roughly level, an SNP landslide in Scotland, the Lib Dems parliamentary party halved and UKIP and the Greens failing to register meaningfully. So it might be but we should at least entertain other possibilities. Why has such a consensus…
Clegg trailing in Hallam even though a third of 2010 CON voters not supporting him @LordAshcroft polling of Sheffield Hallam pic.twitter.com/mE9FbK0dKa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 29, 2015 31% of 2010 CON voters in @LordAshcroft Sheffield Hallam poll say they are voting for Clegg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 29, 2015 Farage’s battle remains tight Details of @LordAshcroft Thanet S poll pic.twitter.com/2sAtqmO3Hi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 29, 2015 Before turnout weighting and don't know re-allocation in @LordAshcroft Thanet S…
Ashcroft. SNP GAIN from CONDumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale pic.twitter.com/5mFt9vew1X — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 17, 2015 Charlie Kennedy’s seat goes to SNP Ashcroft Scottish pollingSNP GAIN Ross, Skye & Charlie Kennedy's seat pic.twitter.com/vojHWw7599 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 17, 2015 Ming’s seat an SNP gain Ashcroft Scottish pollingSNP GAIN NE Fife pic.twitter.com/lfVNzFd4Ug — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 17, 2015 Ashcroft Scottish pollingSNP GAIN E Dunbartonshire pic.twitter.com/E3TvOI1KbZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 17, 2015 Ashcroft Scottish pollingCON GAIN FROM LD Berwick…
UKIP now at lowest level yet on the Commons seats spread market from @SportingIndex http://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 pic.twitter.com/mSbrZjmEIZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 14, 2015 With all the focus being on LAB and CON there’s not been that much attention to the decline of UKIP in the polls. Although this is not universal quite a number of surveys from firms that used to have the best numbers for Farage’s party now have big declines. This is now being reflected on the spread…
RT @philipjcowley: "Labour will replace the House of Lords with a Senate of the Nations and Regions" (p.69). Good luck with that one… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 13, 2015 @PolProfSteve @MSmithsonPB But having been burnt on it last time, there is no way a mere aspiration will do this time for the LDs. — Philip Cowley (@philipjcowley) April 13, 2015
Betting sentiment remains solidly with CON double digit seat margin The chart shows the trend on the Sporting Index commons seats spread market over the past few months and as can be seen the Tories have opened a double digit lead which has remained for some weeks. Even yesterday’s poor polls for the Tories did not have much impact. As well as the straight total seats betting as seen above there’s another market I like – CON supremacy over LAB….
UPDATE Sturgeon wins with YouGov ComRes #leadersdebate poll: 21% favoured Cameron 21% Miliband 21% Farage 20% Sturgeon 9% Clegg 5% Bennett 2% Wood http://t.co/jsd8Jb1lYA — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) April 2, 2015 Debate Result: Sturgeon wins Cameron: 18% Miliband: 15% Clegg: 10% Farage: 20% Bennett: 5% Sturgeon: 28% Wood: 4% 1117 GB adults — YouGov (@YouGov) April 2, 2015 ICM makes it Miliband Guardian/ICM #leadersdebate poll: 25% Miliband 24% Cameron 19% Farage 17% Sturgeon 9% Clegg 3% Bennett 2% Wood Wow. Tories move to 37% in tonight's YouGov voting poll CON 37%,…