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Instead Blair got 413 MPs and the Tories 166 This is starting to feel a bit tiresome those people taking European election voting intention polls and seeking them to apply to a general election. Sure the Tory shares down to 13% are terrible but history suggests that this is not a guide to any General Election outcome. Go back and look at the 2001. Two years earlier William Hague had secured most seats in the EU parliament for his Tories…

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Wikipiedia table of polling for the May 2014 Euro elections Lots of polling excitement tonight with surveys showing UKIP with a apparently avery large lead over the Tories and level pegging with LAB when the samples were asked how they would vote in next month’s euro elections. It all looks a bit gloom and doom for the Tories but if you check back to what was happening at this exact point  5 years ago  UKIP were on 38%  with the…

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Field size and campaign structure make it hard for anyone to win outright Once upon a time, American party conventions to nominate their presidential candidates were raucous, sometimes violent, often unpredictable and certainly lengthy. The Democrat convention of 1924 set the unhappy record of taking 103 ballots to select a candidate, in a convention that lasted more than a fortnight. The drudgery, sweat and fatigue would prove fruitless: John Davis would go on to lose every state outside the South…

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The struggles of the new party The widely reported problems it is having with its selection of some candidates for the European elections together with the difficulty getting a logo registered are just indications of the teething trouble that ChangeUK is having in its attempt to establish itself as a new political force. This will likely be amplified a week today in the English local elections which cover almost all the English counties with the exception of London and a…

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange But is he overpriced in the betting? . As can be seen in the chart Joe Biden has moved back a bit in the betting for the Democratic nomination for WH2020 White House Race. His team is making it known that tomorrow he will formally enter the race with a specially prepared video that will be distributed. This launch contrasts sharply with the mass rallies that he key opponents had with all…

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Down 15-20 on the Tory GE2017 election outcome To get a good sense of how voting intention polls are going I always think it is best to look at all the recent surveys to spot the trend. And this April there is one big and clear message – the Tories are in a mess as we edge towards next week’s local elections and of course the Euro Parliament elections three weeks later. Although the polls in the table above are…

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Sunil looks at the trend and the reasons why This is a two-part series bringing to your attention the decline of the humble Westminster by-election over the last 100 years. In Part 1, I will discuss how the reasons for triggering by-elections have changed since 1918. In Part 2, I will discuss in more detail the phenomenon (or lack) of MPs resigning and re-contesting their seats over principle or when they change party allegiance. Since the 1918 election, when universal…

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