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A guest slot by The Golden Aspie With the local elections just gone and the European Elections next week we are starting to see a ‘paradigm shift’ in our political landscape. The Conservatives are deeply fratricidal on who should lead them after the inevitability of Theresa’s May departure and what version of Conservatism they should follow. Labour are similarly divided although the chasm is between the Leadership on the one side and the PLP and Members on the other side…

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Given the precarious a position TMay is in at the moment we have to assume that we are fairly close to a CON leadership contest when the membership will choose not just a new party leader but of course the next PM. Last week Rory Stewart announced that he would contest the leadership once a vacancy occurs and today another prominent figure, Esther McVey, has declared that she too will be amongst the contenders. The former TV presenter, now MP…

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  For this Trump called her “nasty” While most of us in the UK have been sidelined by the local election results, Gavin Williamson and the ongoing talks on brexit there has been a big development in the race for the Democratic nomination for next year’s White House election. The early favourite, and my 66/1 pick from January 2017, Kamala Harris had been edging down in the betting somewhat since launching her campaign in January. We haven’t really heard from her…

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It’ll be the LDs who’ll find it easier to present themselves as the voice of Remain The New Statesman’s Stephen Bush’s analysis sums up the post-local elections challenge for ChangeUK which, of course, did not participate yesterday. “….the reality is that if any party can now pivot to being the natural choice for Remainers who want to send a message at the European elections on 23 May, it is going to be the Liberal Democrats. What they need to do…

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BBC Projected National Share of the vote (PNS) for the 2019 local elections:Con 28Lab 28LD 19Others 25 Only the second time all parties under 30%. Best Lib Dem share since 2010. pic.twitter.com/YINiVH3L8G — Steve Fisher (@StephenDFisher) May 3, 2019 Latest BBC Scorecard pic.twitter.com/Faq93AQEDB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 3, 2019 Corbyn’s LAB doing worse than EdM’s party four years ago The local results are coming in thick and fast and the LDs have just ABOUT achieved the 500 gain projection…

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The counts start this morning in thousands of more seats In many ways this is all going to what had been expected. Rallings and Thrasher had predicted 400 LD gains while Tory elections expert, Lord Hayward, had put it at 500. We’ll have to see how this goes. A key measure will be the national equivalent vote share projection which will probably come out in the coming days. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Latest BBC scorecard pic.twitter.com/oteY2GR3QP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 3, 2019 Because the majority of results will be not Known until perhaps mid-afternoon it is hard to draw conclusions so far on this year’s local election results. The councils that have counted overnight have been more in the north of England where Labour has been struggling more than in the south. The Lib Dems have been making a number of gains but their best prospects will be in the councils…

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LAB the biggest losers so far We must remember that the majority councils are not starting their counts until the morning. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet