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Category: Coalition

A reminder of how well each pollster did at last month’s Euros

A reminder of how well each pollster did at last month’s Euros

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Well at least they couldn’t be accused of clustering With the Tory leadership race taking place and the unique situation where party members will be electing a new PM there’s increasing focus on the polls and the possibility that the new leader could seek to call a general election. One thing I’ve been meaning to do since the May 23rd Euros is to record here how the pollsters did in their final surveys compared with the actual result. This is…

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The Tory booted out of his Brecon & Radnorshire seat by the recall petition plans to stand again for his party in the by-election

The Tory booted out of his Brecon & Radnorshire seat by the recall petition plans to stand again for his party in the by-election

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Brecon & Radnorshire 1979-2017 from David Cowling Chris Davies also tells me he didn’t think about not standing in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election and that he sees it as opportunity to regain constituents’ trust. — Adrian Masters (@adrianmasters84) June 21, 2019 Chris Davies confirms to me that he has the support of his party for standing again in Brecon and Radnorshire. He says he’s had calls today from both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt who’ve backed him. — Adrian…

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This is a good moment to recall the MP stage of the 2001 Tory leadership election when Portillo missed the cut by just one vote

This is a good moment to recall the MP stage of the 2001 Tory leadership election when Portillo missed the cut by just one vote

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How IDS got into the members’ ballot with fewer than a third of the MP votes The very first time the CON leadership election procedure that we are seeing at the moment was used was in 2001 in the aftermath of Tony Blair’s second successive landslide general election victory. The longstanding favourite and the person expected to take the crown was Michael Portillo who had lost his Enfield seat at GE1997. He returned to the Commons in a by-election and…

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The Tories move to 21% in a YouGov poll and this is being described as a “surge”

The Tories move to 21% in a YouGov poll and this is being described as a “surge”

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Who'd have thought only four months ago that the Tories moving to 21% rating in a national voting intention poll would be described as a "surge" pic.twitter.com/eiAKTwSdSs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 15, 2019 Politics has been turned upside down Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

As Johnson launches CON membership polling finds his backers more likely to want a no deal Brexit and less emphasis on climate change

As Johnson launches CON membership polling finds his backers more likely to want a no deal Brexit and less emphasis on climate change

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  Would a PM Johnson try to please those who got him there? The above findings are from recent YouGov polling of CON members – the group that in in a week or so will decide on who should be the next party leader and, of course next PM. Tomorrow CON MPs hold the first round of voting in the process of whittling down to two names which will go to the membership in a postal ballot. The data from…

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For the first time ever neither LAB nor CON occupy the top two slots in a national Westminster voting intention poll

For the first time ever neither LAB nor CON occupy the top two slots in a national Westminster voting intention poll

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LD 24% BXP 22% LAB 19% CON 19% As had been leaked earlier yesterday evening the latest Times YouGov poll has historic changes in the party order with the Lib Dems on 24% two points ahead of BXP with Labour and the Tories both on 19%. This has simply not happened before in the history of polling. It is totally unprecedented for neither of the two major parties currently forming the government and the opposition to perform so poorly. Clearly…

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In the TMay successor betting Gove replaces Raab as second favourite – Johnson still clear favourite

In the TMay successor betting Gove replaces Raab as second favourite – Johnson still clear favourite

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There have now been two working days since TMay announced her exit programme and there has been quite a lot of movement on the Betfair exchange where £0.75m has been gambled in the past week. The big change as can be seen in the chart is the growing support for Michael Gove who has replaced Raab as second favourite. All sort of new betting mark with 12 CON MPs now having declared themselves as runners. Unless there is any whittling…

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