Brecon & Radnorshire, result: LD 43.5% (+14.3) CON: 39.0% (-9.6) BREX: 10.5% (+10.5) LAB: 5.3% (-12.5) MRLP: 1.0% (+1.0) UKIP: 0.8% (-0.6) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 2, 2019 Another by-election flop for a Farage party — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 2, 2019
There’s been a fair bit of speculation today following the latest YouGov/Times poll that all might not be lost for Tories in tomorrow’s by-election. Maybe but according to standard swing calculations BJohnson’s party needs more movement than this to fend off the yellow peril. Swing is calculated by looking at the poll shares in relation to what happened at the general election. So the Tory GB share on June 8th 2017 was 43.5% which is 11.5% greater than today’s poll….
Quinnipac national poll Tomorrow night sees the second round of debates amongst those competing to be the Democratic nominee to take on Trump in the November 2020 White House race. After the first round last month California Senator, Kamala Harris, was deemed to have done best with what was seen as a highly effective attack on the 76 year old front runner and two times White House failure, Jo Biden. As a result she moved sharply into the favourite slot…
A new Welsh Political Barometer poll by @YouGov will be published tomorrow by @ITVWales The results go well beyond ‘gosh’ territory, or even ‘blimey’: by some way the most dramatic poll I have ever analysed. And in some respects a genuinely historic poll for Welsh politics. — Roger Awan-Scully (@roger_scully) July 28, 2019 It is not often that all eyes are on Welsh politics but yesterday’s Tweet from the respected Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University has really set things…
As well as the voting intention surveys this weekend we have had the first approval ratings from Opinium on Johnson in polling carried out since he entered Number 10. A total of 28% said they approved of the way he was handling his job compared with 31% saying the disapproved. This gives a net figure of minus three. Opinium carry ask such question every two weeks and have been doing so for at least a decade. Looking back to July…
The current restrictions help neither the public nor MPs Parliament is – and is meant to be – a tough arena. MPs and ministers take critically-important decisions and need to be accountable for them. Ideas and arguments need to tested and pitted against one another. Failures (and perceived failures) will be pounced on, often ruthlessly. Unfortunate ministers and shadow ministers who make the wrong mistake at the wrong time find themselves at the centre of a political storm often out…
Ex-Tory, Heidi Allen campaigning for the LDs in Brecon and Radnorshire With Brecon & Radnorshire voting on Thursday there’s a possibility that Sheffield Hallam could follow soon after If the betting markets have this right then the Lib Dems look set to gain the Brecon and Radnorshire seat from the Conservatives in the by-election that takes place next Thursday. Some bookies rate their chances at 1/12 so to win £1 you would have to risk £12. Although the consistency voted…
A brave move from from BoJo’s fellow Etonian ITV News has just published the above – one of the first executive acts by Leader of the House, Moggsy. Maybe I didn’t have the same privileged education but is not this just the sort of thing that is going to open him, and the Johnson regime to ridicule. For all non-titled male MPs to have Esq after their names is taking us back generations. In my entire career going back to…