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2/n There were *a lot* of very expensive pledges in his speech:– Free university tuition– Renationalisation of key industries– "Ending austerity" i.e. major increases in day-to-day spending How will this all be paid for? — David Herdson (@DavidHerdson) August 19, 2019 4/n There is a lot of work to be done / explained in Labour's policies – are they up to doing so? Can they explain, simply, what "[We'll] give the workforce a 10% stake in large companies; paying a…

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From Betdata.io – the last month on Betfair GE year market But 2019 still a strong odds-on favourite As can be seen from the chart there has been a huge amount of volatility on the year of the next general election with punters starting to move back from 2019 which got to a 73% chance earlier in the week. As we know under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act there are two ways an election can be triggered ahead of 2022…

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It's confirmed. LD leader, Jo 'Swinson, has just sent this message out about Sarah Woolston MP pic.twitter.com/v8Keyi7I3F — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 14, 2019 Wollaston, a local GP, first came to prominence when she won a full postal open primary ahead of GE2010 to be the CON candidate for Totnes. Partly of who she is and the manner of her selection she was never afraid to take positions that did no follow the party line. When she was part of…

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Six months chart of Betfair movements  from Betdata.io We could be within 2 months of seeing a general election being declared and so far at least we haven’t looked at how punters are seeing the outcome. The chances in the betting on the Betfair change, where punters not bookies fix the odds, shows the movement on the Betfair Exchange over the past 6 months As can be seen there was a stage not so long ago when LAB was the…

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I can't recall a national opinion poll for a leading newspaper being so criticized as tonight's one from ComRes for the Daily Telegraph. To think that just 4 years ago after the 2015 general election ComRes was regarded as the top pollster — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 12, 2019 Important – @Telegraph reporting taking the piss by ignoring “don’t knows” to present an apparent majority – one for @FullFact @RoyalStatSoc @TweetMRS https://t.co/Qyz0hopxZL — Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) August 13,…

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It could put a CON majority beyond reach Eight days ago after the LDs victory in overturning the Tory 19.5% majority in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election I noted  that the significant feature had been the decision by the Greens and Plaid Cymru to stand aside. “Here, in this by election, there was only one option for voters who wanted to express their choice for a Remain party and that was the Lib Dems. My guess is this decision of the…

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With a possible General Election only a few months away and ongoing talk of MP defections or constituency pacts there’s been little focus on how this happens in practice. Just imagine for a moment that you want to become an MP and have first gone through the process of being approved by your your national party. Once on that list then constituency parties can choose you and generally you have to fight an internal constituency election in order to become…

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Westminster voting intention: LAB: 30% (+3)CON: 29% (+1)LDEM: 16% (-3)BREX: 15% (-1)GRN: 5% (+1) via @ComRes, 26 – 28 JulChgs. w/ 25 Jul — Britain Elects (@britainelects) August 2, 2019 The BJohnson honeymoon – could it be over? Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet