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That overstates his chances Last time there was an LD leadership contest it got overshadowed by the Tory contest that saw Johnson take the crown. This time it is LAB’s leadership battle which is dominating the coverage which is understandable. The vacancy, as we all know, has been created because Jo Swinson lost her seat at the general election and now the party is going through the process of electing a replacement. So far the possible contenders would appear to…

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Over the next seven weeks this spreadsheet from Guido and others like it are going to be a key part for those following and betting on the LAB leadership contest. For we are nearly two months away from ballots going out – this is stage one of gathering the nominations simply in order to be able to proceed to the next stage. The leadership hopefuls have got to persuade 22 of their MP colleagues to back their bid by next…

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Corbyn remains leader until April 4th We’ve now got the timetable for the LAB leadership election and already critics are saying that the party’s NEC is making it easier for Rebecca Long Bailey. This is from HuffPost’s, Paul Waugh. …the left-dominated NEC faced swift accusations of trying to “rig” the race in favour of Long Bailey, who is expected to win the backing of Momentum founder Jon Lansman. Momentum has extensive reach among the party’s members but candidates won’t get…

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Can we ready anything into her silence? Over the weekend we have seen a fair bit of the prospective successors to Corbyn as LAB leader of which five have already declared. These are: Keir Starmer Emily Thornberry Lisa Nandy Jess Phillips Clive Lewis Surprisingly there has been no public move so far from Long-Bailey who is said to be the favourite of the Corbyn and McDonnell – the ones who really hold the power. An excellent profile on her in…

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And in New Hampshire – the second state to decide In the betting Biden touches his highest point yet Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Just before the Christmas break the Commons library published its analysis of the December general election and the above are some of the sets of data that relate to the main national parties. Clearly the seats of former Speaker Bercow and the current one Hoyle are going to appear in the lists because the main parties do not contest them. So Buckingham had its first main party contest since 2005 while Chorley had a limited range of candidates this time….

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Working through lots of candidates and lots of considerations Calling the Labour leadership contest is hard, to me at least. Not only do we not yet know who’s going to stand but working out what the key considerations will be with the relevant voters – at both nomination stage and in the election proper – is an exercise in second-guessing on multiple levels. We don’t even know when the election will start for sure: it might be next week but…

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The chart shows the Real Clear Politics average for the President’s approval ratings which over the decades have been a good pointer to electoral outcomes. In an analysis Taegan Goddard of Politicalwire notes that only Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush had periods when the majority of American disapproved of them and both failed to be re-elected. Maybe Trump can change things in his final year but maybe be won’t. As we saw in the midterms voters are very…

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