YouGov finds Leave voters taking a more lenient view of Prince Andrew than Remainers
Mike Smithson
Bernie heading for big Nevada victory and is going to be hard to stop winning the nomination
The only way he can be fail, surely, is if there’s an agreement on a single centrist contender This post from @Nigelb sums it up: Both billionaire egotists have declared there sticking around for Super Tuesday, so I think that’s it. Biden is weak enough that it would be a poor gamble for (say) Buttigieg to drop out and endorse him… and Warren on 9% just thanked Nevada for “keeping her in the race”…This race is analogous to the last…
Bernie edges to odds-on for the nomination as the Nevada caucuses get ready to start
It’s another big night in the fight for he WH2010 Democratic nomination with the caucuses in Nevada. We should start getting results at about 0300 GMT. Bernie goes into this latest with a very clear lead in the caucus polling. The latest RCP polling average is: Sanders 32.5% Buttigieg 16% Biden 16% Warren 14% Klobuchar 9.5% If the Sanders numbers are in line with the polling then I agree with David Herdson view in the previous thread. Mike Smithson
Some Corbyn backers still not persuaded that GE2019 was the total disaster for their party that it was
This seems a simple thing to do but haven’t seen it anywhere yet so here it is: Labour % vote share change between 2015 and 2019, by seat, giving the “net Corbyn effect” on the Labour share https://t.co/Ls5hW6GQGg — Simon (@simonk_133) February 17, 2020 Many LAB votes on December 12th were in spite of Corbyn not for him After GE2017 many within the Labour movement chose not to regard the outcome as a defeat but as a victory because the…
Punters rate Bernie as an 84% chance in Nevada but level pegging with Biden in S Carolina
These are the latest charts from Betdata.io on the next two Democratic primaries in WH2020. Essentially they show how punters who are risking their cash are rating these two races. My own view is that both Biden and Sanders are far too old to be rated as candidates for the presidency and that sooner or later a younger centrist will emerge. At the moment Biden, based on the first two states to decide appears in a stronger position than Biden…
My 760/1 shot for WH2020 raises $12m in 5 days after her strong New Hampshire Showing
Apart from Biden’s terrible performance and Elizabeth Warren only getting 9.7% of the vote the big surprise of last week’s New Hampshire primary was Amy Klobuchar’s strong third place which was well ahead of what the polls were showing. Her 19.8% vote share was well ahead of the 11.7% that she had in the RCP polling average of final polls for the state. That is some difference. I’ve long been watching Klobuchar’s progress closely after putting £8 on her at…
The helter-skelter world of WH2020 Democratic nomination betting
By far the biggest and most active currently political betting market is on who the Democrats will choose as their candidate for the November presidential election. We are currently at a critical stage after having the first two primaries and looking forward to Super Tuesday on March 3rd when more than a dozen states including the two largest, Texas and California, will be making their decisions. By historical standards the size of the field at this stage is very long…
Who’ll be the Judge? Legitimately elected governments are not excused the obligation to comply with the law
On 11 February, following a court ruling, some Jamaican nationals convicted of serious crimes were not put on their scheduled deportation flight because they had not received legal advice about their deportation. This ruling does not mean that this group will be entitled to stay in the UK. Nor does it mean that the government will not be able to proceed with the deportations. What it does mean is that there will be a pause to allow them to obtain…