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The boundaries: At least, either way, it will all be over tonight

The boundaries: At least, either way, it will all be over tonight

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+++Breaking CON loses #GE2015 +++@tnewtondunnAngus Robertson to confirm SNP WILL vote against the Govt and the boundaries review tonight. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 29, 2013 Tory boundary changes rebels: Glyn Davies, Philip Davies, David Davis. — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) January 29, 2013 Latest #GE2015 Commons seats line betting prices from Ladbrokes: CON 278.5: LAB 309.5: LD 32.5. You bet evens up/downbit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 29, 2013 Unless there is some remarkably bad management by the LAB and…

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The new HS2 route serves areas with a heavy concentration of marginals – a winner or a loser at #GE2015

The new HS2 route serves areas with a heavy concentration of marginals – a winner or a loser at #GE2015

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The HS2 route to the Midlands & North where a high proportion of the marginals are. An electoral winner or loser? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 28, 2013 Is the plan right in spite of NIMBY noise? The day’s big announcement has been the extension of the HS2 ine from Birmingham to the East Midland and the North West – all areas with a high proportion of the country’s marginal seats. Come April/May 2015 this will be where a…

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It seems that changed methodology was a big driver of the changes in the ComRes poll

It seems that changed methodology was a big driver of the changes in the ComRes poll

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Should the poll have been CON 32:LAB 37%:LD 11%:UKIP 13%? It appears that part of the 4% drop in the Ukip ComRes share is down to revised methodlogy by the pollster. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2013 ComRes appears to have gone back to old formula with minor parties of only including the 100% certains. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2013 Anthony Wells reckons that without the methodology changes ComRes would have beenCON 32%, LAB 37%, LD 11%,…

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The speech: Dave sees increases in his personal quality ratings although voting intention numbers have barely moved

The speech: Dave sees increases in his personal quality ratings although voting intention numbers have barely moved

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First full YouGov poll taken entirely after CAM speech – CON 33:LAB 43:LD 10: Ukip 9. Chart shows full week’s polling twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2013 Cameron’s personal quality ratings move up sharply following his big speech – see YouGov table twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2013 Today’s Populus37% STAY 40% LEAVE EU poll compares with firm’s survey in Jun ’12 when 36% said REMAIN and 44% said they didn’t — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January…

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Can we expect referendum boost for the blues in tonight’s LD-CON local election spats?

Can we expect referendum boost for the blues in tonight’s LD-CON local election spats?

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Harry Hayfield prevews the contests Highbridge and Burnham Marine (Sedgemoor) Last Local Election (2011): Conservatives 31, Labour 13, Liberal Democrats 2, Independents 2 (Conservative overall majority of 14) Result at last election (2011): Lib Dem 782 Ind 705 Ind 543 Lib Dem 528 Con 516 Lib Dem 511 Con 473 Con 471 Lab 451 Lab 379 Lab 351 (1 Lib Dem HOLD, 2 Independent GAINS from Lib Dem) After last week’s urban dominated by-elections, we travel to the rural wilds…

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With just hours to go before Dave’s big EU speech the January Ipsos-MORI issues index puts concern about the EU at 6 percent

With just hours to go before Dave’s big EU speech the January Ipsos-MORI issues index puts concern about the EU at 6 percent

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Chart from Ipsos MORI showing long term trend in concern of voters about EU twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 22, 2013 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

The latest ICM phone poll finds that the LAB lead is down 3 to just 5 percent

The latest ICM phone poll finds that the LAB lead is down 3 to just 5 percent

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LAB lead down to 5% in the January ICM poll.m.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 21, 2013 CON 1% ahead with men but 16% behind with women With a record for accuracy and polling innovation going back over two decades the telephone survey by ICM for the Guardian is the polling event of the month. The firm is widely regarded as “the gold standard”. The latest numbers just published see the LDs edging back up 2 to 15%, the…

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