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#Eastleigh: The betting moves a notch towards the LDs after the Ashcroft poll

#Eastleigh: The betting moves a notch towards the LDs after the Ashcroft poll

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#Eastleigh: Bet365, PaddyPower, Coral & Hills make the LDs odds on FAV. Ladbrokes & Stan James have both CON&LD at evens. Betfair LD the FAV — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 8, 2013 @opusdeath I plan to make an #Easteigh call once the LD have selected their candidate & maybe we have more polling — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 8, 2013 It’s been a day of consolidation on the by-election betting markets following the publication of Michael Ashcroft’s telephone poll. Although…

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The Bedroom Tax will kill Coalition claims of fairness

The Bedroom Tax will kill Coalition claims of fairness

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The Henry G. Manson Friday slot There are some that have likened the ‘bedroom tax’ to the ‘Poll Tax’. It’s not. The bedroom tax won’t apply to the vast majority of people, so its political purchase is limited in that respect. However it is hitting around 600,000 of some of the most vulnerable in society that is significant. The unfairness of the implications of this particular policy will ring out across the country come April. The fact that this will…

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CON 3 percent ahead in first #Eastleigh poll

CON 3 percent ahead in first #Eastleigh poll

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Pie chart showing Lord Ashcroft’s first #Eastleigh poll with changes on #GE2010. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 7, 2013 The polling was conducted on 4 and 5 February by the former Conservative deputy chairman Lord Michael Ashcroft.

If the betting markets have got #Eastleigh right then the Tories are heading for a senstational by-election victory

If the betting markets have got #Eastleigh right then the Tories are heading for a senstational by-election victory

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Grant Shapps tough comments about the #Eastleigh LDs seems to be the driver of big swing in betting towards CON twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2013 By-election to be held on Feb 28 The tough comments by CON chair, Grant Shapps/Michael Green, saying that Eastleigh voters had been let down by the lies of Lib Dems seem to have been the driver behind today’s betting which now sees the Tories odds-on with all the online firms apart from…

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So far, at least, Clegg and the Lib Dems do not seem to be paying a price for last week’s veto on the boundary changes

So far, at least, Clegg and the Lib Dems do not seem to be paying a price for last week’s veto on the boundary changes

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So far at least last week’s Clegg boundaries veto doesn’t seem to have impacted on the polling twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2013 Is it now just a footnote? Just eight days ago the big political news was the expected rejection by the Commons of plans to reduce the number of MPs to 600 and introduce new boundaries. There was fury from the blue side with words like “betrayal” coming out – yet this maelstrom doesn’t seem to…

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If the #Eastleigh swing is in line with today’s YouGov poll then the Tories would squeeze it by just just one fifth of a percent

If the #Eastleigh swing is in line with today’s YouGov poll then the Tories would squeeze it by just just one fifth of a percent

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Pie chart with today’s YouGov shares showing changes on the national GB figures from #GE2010 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2013 At #GE2010 the Lib Dems held Eastleigh with a lead over the Conservatives of just 7.2%. So the swing required for victory is 3.6%. Today’s YouGov shows a swing to the Tories of 3.8% since 2010 – or just slightly ahead of what is required. The normal way of calculating swings by taking the gap between the…

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