Odds on Osborne as Cameron’s successor tighten as he takes an even greater grip on his party in the reshuffle
Ladbrokes: Next Tory leader selected odds 12/1 Osborne (cut from 16) 33/1 Esther McVey (cut from 50) 33/1 Afriyie http://t.co/Wp8AiqMFLH — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) October 7, 2013 Osborne, Osborne everywhere! Now @matthancockmp goes up a notch. (BTW, a very good appointment.) #reshuffle #Octopus — Paul Goodman (@PaulGoodmanCH) October 7, 2013 Staunch Cleggite Jeremy Browne being replaced at Home Office by Norman Baker. Biggest shock of reshuffle so far #reshuffle — James Chapman (Mail) (@jameschappers) October 7, 2013 If Jeremy Browne has been sacked cd…
How supporters of the main parties view ethnic minorities
LAB stays in the 40s with YouGov as conference season ends
Today’s YouGov is based on fieldwork which started on Tuesday evening and finished late after yesterday – so would have covered the Mili-Mail flare-up and Dave’s big speech yesterday. The latest shares are CON 34, LAB 40, LD 9, UKIP 10. So the two main parties had 74% between them which is a very high proportion compared with other recent polling. It looks like the LDs and Ukip have been squeezed by the parties which had their conferences at the…
The Milibands go to war against the Daily Mail – this could be a key moment
EdM takes on the Daily Mail over the "smearing" of his dead father http://t.co/EZq0hBxmew pic.twitter.com/5Ter41fm7J — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 1, 2013 After printing Ed’s response the paper stands by its attack Of all the newspapers in the UK the Mail is the most influential politically. Its circulation remains more buoyant than the rest and it has the biggest online presence. The response by the LAB leader ensures at the very minimum that the row continues. David Miliband has also joined…
LAB moves to an 11 percent lead with YouGov equalling it’s best position since early April
EdM gets an 8% personal ratings boost The chart shows the latest polling numbers from YouGov with changes on the firm’s last survey for the Sunday Times a week ago. The big thing is not the lead but the movement by 5% in the Labour share. This is a big conference bounce – the question is whether it can be sustained. If these numbers were repeated at a general election LAB would have a very comfortable majority. The poll finds…
The polling figures that could lay to rest any idea of a CON-UKIP electoral alliance
What happened when voters were asked by YouGov how a CON-UKIP alliance would impact on their GE2015 preferences On the face of it this seems odd. For in the comparison standard poll CON and UKIP together had combined support of 44%. Yet just 35% told the pollsters that they would vote for a CON-UKIP alliance. What happened to the other 9%? This was the question that YouGov put after the standard one:- “Imagine that UKIP and the Conservatives agreed a…
Goodbye to the Middle Ground
If a Middle Ground even exists It’s been an axiom of political analysis over at least the last quarter century that elections are won on the centre ground, or, if neither of the main two parties is on that ground, then by the party nearest it. Occupying and dominating that position was crucial to Tony Blair in government and opposition, and heading towards it defined strategy for his two predecessors too. Likewise, David Cameron spent much of his time in…