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How Scotland on Sunday is reporting its #IndyRef poll with the NO lead down to just 3% pic.twitter.com/uWy8j1WaEO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2014 Excuding DKs/WNVs it is YES 48: NO 52 A dramatic new poll by ICM for Scotland on Sunday has the gap down to just 3% – the lowest ever from an established national pollster. The numbers say it all. YES is stable on 39% but there has been a four point reduction in those saying…

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Maybe it is because I’m on my way home from Edinburgh after being immersed totally in Scottish politics for two days but I am convinced that the immensity of what will be decided on September 18 is overshadowing everything. The very idea that the Union that has been in place since 1707 might come to an end is what everybody is focusing on to the exclusion of almost everything else in current politics. This means, for starters, that the Euro…

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Tories drop 3 in latest ICM Westminster poll Tonight's ICM phone poll for Guardian has CON 32-3 LAB 37 LD 12 UKIP 11 CON share worst from ICM since last summer — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 14, 2014 Clegg’s Farage debate gamble looks like a failure For me ICM IS the gold standard and I regard its monthly survey for the Guardian as the most important polling event of the month. ICM is also the firm that traditionally reports the best shares for the…

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What’s the trend? Is this key group getting smaller or larger? On Friday there was a lot of discussion on the thread about the detail from the latest Populus online poll which seemed to point to a big reduction in the proportion of 2010 LDs who are now saying they’ll vote LAB. Was this this just a sampling issue or were we seeing a trend that could change our whole view of the GE2015 outcome? Well this was a subset…

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Tick all that you think will still be there Which of the following will still be leaders of their parties on January 1 2016? David Cameron Nick Clegg Ed Miliband Nigel Farage Alex Salmond     

As can be seen from Betfair chart big fluctuations in #IndyRef YES price over w/e. Now 26.3% chance. Was 41%+ pic.twitter.com/IfPf0E3RlQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 13, 2014 Making money betting on the betting It’s been an extraordinary, and for some profitable, weekend on the Betfair IndyRef markets which have seen huge fluctuations in the YES price. What’s good from a punting point of view is that is is one of the few political betting markets which are now liquid…

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