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Will PB’s Wisdom of Crowds” gets closest to Thursday’s outcome? First go to the Prediction Page Second If you are a registered poster on the site then use your Vanilla username. If not then enter your email address as well. We will need to contact you to arrange for your free £50 bet at Ladbrokes if you win. Third Enter your predictions for each party up to two decimal points. Fourth, after you have made your predictions of the shares…

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New ICM #IndyRef poll sees sharp reverse for YES. Yes 34 -5 No 46 +4 DK 20 +1 http://t.co/Rrty4rvWRd pic.twitter.com/oSjVH20ga8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 18, 2014 This’ll ease the jitters in the NO camp Probably the most influential poll over the past month was the ICM on;one Scottish survey for Scotland on Sunday which had the NO lead down to just 3%. This was the best position for YES in any media commissioned poll and has set the narrative in both Edinburgh…

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I think that we are going to see ComRes for the Indy on Sunday/S Mirror, ICM online for the Sunday Telegraph and the usual YouGov for the Sunday Times. This post will be updated later. Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble Follow @MSmithsonPB

Only changes are LD up CON down all within margin or error Whenever a new poll comes up showing two or three points changes someone always comes on to say it is all within the margin of error. And so it is from a mathematical point of view. But most “consumers” of poll don’t react in that way – it is an emotional thing particularly during a highly charged political period that we are going through at the moment. So…

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Farage sees his net satisfaction ratings down 7.5% @IpsosMORI chart showing change in its monthly leader ratings. Biggest net change -7.5% for Farage pic.twitter.com/bEdv8JFR3J — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 14, 2014 Given recent polls today’s May Political Monitor from Ipsos-MORI will come as something as a relief to Labour. They are down 4% but still in the lead. A more interesting change has been the 4% fall-back in Ukip’s Westminster voting share. This combined with declining ratings for Farage might…

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The LDs slump to fifth place behind the Greens Just a year ago I placed a bet at 10/1 that the Tories would win most votes in next week’s Euro elections – a position that has found little support on PB or elsewhere. I’ve stuck with my guns and last week I extended my position even further and got on at a 56/1 on Betfair. Tonight the Guardian ICM poll on the Euros had the Tories in the lead with…

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LAB just 1% up on their GE2010 share Two terrible polls in the past few hours for Labour. After going through a period of 27 months without a CON lead we now have two polls showing the blues ahead. This must be seriously worrying for the EdM camp. Tonight’s 31% LAB share from ICM is the lowest from any poll since GE2010 and means that Labour has just put on 1% since Gordon Brown lost that election. Earlier in the…

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