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From the latest Ashcroft Marginals polling that should have attracted the attention it deserves

From the latest Ashcroft Marginals polling that should have attracted the attention it deserves

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Breakdown from specific seats which each had 1,000 sample Preferred GE15 outcome in 26 seats from @LordAshcroft latest marginals polling pic.twitter.com/ZnXsgE7dT8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 2, 2014 As we wait for this afternoon’s Newark poll from Lord Ashcroft I thought it worth going back to his massive marginals polling published the weekend before last. Because of the timing, on the Saturday after the local results but before the Euros, it got nothing like the attention it deserved. This was…

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As long as Paddy Ashdown’s on side then Nick Clegg’s position is secure

As long as Paddy Ashdown’s on side then Nick Clegg’s position is secure

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Nick Clegg looking quite emotional on Sky. pic.twitter.com/V5G19ya7ci — Helen Lewis (@helenlewis) May 26, 2014 The former leader has the power to stop regicide Back in September 2012 at the Lib Dem Brighton conference Clegg announced the appointment of ex-leader, Paddy Ashdown as head of the party’s 2015 general election campaign. This has been discussed in terms of his ability to reach Labour tactical voters who are central to the party holding onto those seats where the Tories are in…

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Election 2014: A 3-act drama and the plot’s bubbling nicely

Election 2014: A 3-act drama and the plot’s bubbling nicely

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The local elections suggest something really historic in the Euros The last time any party other than Labour or the Conservatives won a UK-wide election, women didn’t have the vote, the future RMS Titanic was still under construction and the Ottoman Empire stretched to the shores of the Adriatic.  That 103-year long shut-out will probably end this week. Before looking forward, however, a brief look back.  The local elections have not been a spectacular success or failure for any party. …

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Ukip sees 4 point drop in its projected national vote share according to the BBC

Ukip sees 4 point drop in its projected national vote share according to the BBC

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BBC announces that Provisional National Vote share in yesterday's locals was Con 29 Lab 31 LD 13 UKIP 17 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 23, 2014 The trend in BBC National Vote share based on the May locals. Ukip down 6% on last year. pic.twitter.com/caD3KO0OzW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 23, 2014 CORRECTION. The decline in Ukip's Projected National Share yesterday was SIX down on 2013 and not 4 as I previously Tweeted. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 23, 2014 A bad omen for…

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Locals 2014: Some of the highlights on a fast moving night

Locals 2014: Some of the highlights on a fast moving night

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Losses for Tories & Lib Dems but Labour & UKIP gain council seats – UK #Vote2014 coverage http://t.co/6BCfZPomc6 & pic.twitter.com/hZoTTDnoP9 — BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) May 23, 2014 A bad night for UKIP in Eastleigh says our reporter there – not s/thing you'll hear much elsewhere tonight — Ross Hawkins (@rosschawkins) May 23, 2014 LDs hold onto control of Eastleigh where the Westminster seat is a key Ukip target. No good for #GE15 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 23, 2014…

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