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Category: Coalition

WH2020: The courts put a halt on US Postal Service changes that could have impacted on the election outcome

WH2020: The courts put a halt on US Postal Service changes that could have impacted on the election outcome

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This could be an important decision by the courts because Trump has made no secret of his desire to impede postal voting because he believes it strongly favours his opponent. This is from the Washington Post’s report of the judgement by Judge Stanley A. Bastian: The states have demonstrated that the defendants are involved in a politically motivated attack on the efficiency of the Postal Service. They have also demonstrated that this attack on the Postal Service is likely to…

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WH2020 betting: The best odds on Biden are the in the national markets – Trump punters should go for Michigan or Wisconsin

WH2020 betting: The best odds on Biden are the in the national markets – Trump punters should go for Michigan or Wisconsin

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As I write (1100 BST) quite a gap in the betting value has developed between the Betfair exchange odds on the national party of the next president market and what is available in the key states that will decide this election. For there is almost no way that Trump can hang on unless he holds Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – the rust belt states that effectively gave him victory at WH2016. So currently the odds on available on the parties…

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Now the Johnson/Cummings move to change the Brexit agreement threatens a US-UK trade deal

Now the Johnson/Cummings move to change the Brexit agreement threatens a US-UK trade deal

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One of the big challenges presented by Brexit is that the UK needs to make trade deals with nations that before had deals with the EU and there’s a reminder of the pressure that can be exerted in the above letter from Washington DC. For in the US any trade deal would have to be approved by the House of Representatives which, of course could lead to all sorts of other issues being raised. A nation operating on its own…

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Will tonight see the first poll since GE2019 with LAB ahead?

Will tonight see the first poll since GE2019 with LAB ahead?

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It might seem an eternity ago but in the first polls in April this year after Starmer became LAB leader two pollsters had CON leads of 26%. Since then things have fallen back sharply for the governing party and in its last survey at the end of August Opinium, had LAB and CON level pegging on 40% each. Tonight we are due the latest Opinium poll and I just wonder whether this will be the moment that LAB edges into…

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New YouGov pollings finds that a majority of those sampled think the Covid 19 crisis is getting worse

New YouGov pollings finds that a majority of those sampled think the Covid 19 crisis is getting worse

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There’s been a huge jump since the end of August I find the above chart absolutely fascinating because it shows very dramatically the changes in the public’s perception of how the pandemic is going. We are not back to the May to July period but there has been a lot of movement in in the past few days. A 32% to 54% jump is massive. May be the reality of what the pandemic has done and fears of the immediate…

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The polling continues to look solid for Biden

The polling continues to look solid for Biden

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And we’ve yet to see the impact of his comments about the military The latest WH2020 average from RealClearPolitics is above and shows it getting back to what it was before the Republican convention. According to the latest RCP calculation Trump is 7% behind nationally. This latest figure does not include any polls issued three polls have been published in the past hour that show margins for Biden of 10%, 11% and 13%. So it could be moving even further…

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The betting markets continue to rate Trump’s re-election chances far too highly

The betting markets continue to rate Trump’s re-election chances far too highly

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The president’s polling retains a rock-hard ceiling, too low At the start of February, Donald Trump looked well set for re-election. True, his personal ratings weren’t great and nor were his head-to-heads against both Biden and Sanders, the two Democrats who’d shared the lead in the race for their party’s nomination for the previous three months. Even so, the economy was roaring ahead with record job numbers, America was near-enough out of foreign wars, and the attempt to impeach him…

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Johnson can’t go on being as dire at PMQs as he was yesterday

Johnson can’t go on being as dire at PMQs as he was yesterday

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Time to bet that he won’t make it as PM until the next general election? I first began reporting professionally as a journalist on PMQs in 1972 when I was part of the small team that produced the “Today in Parliament” programme for BBC Radio 4. Three years later I was one of the editors that handled the parliamentary broadcasting experiment that was the forerunner of the proceedings of the House being broadcast on radio and then later television. These…

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