BBC Newsnight Will the poll ease the jitters at Number 10? Telegraph reporting – “The ICM survey for the Sunday Telegraph puts the party on 47 per cent of the vote with its nearest challenger, the Scottish National Party (SNP), on 33 per cent. Liberal Democrats are on nine per cent and the Conservatives on seven per cent.” We need to see the details of the poll, of course, but this margin looks emphatic and suggests that Labour will hold…
Is the “poll” for the whole of Scotland – not just Glasgow East? Within the past hour above story has just gone up on the Guardian website – BUT PUNTERS HOLDER ON. It looks as though the paper might have confused an all-Scotland Westminster voting intention poll that was published overnight with one that was done specifically on Glasgow East. There is, of course, a world of difference. Stuart Dickson posted the all-Scotland poll here early this morning. Where the…
Does their failure suggest that anti-Tory voting is drying up? In all the analysis of the H&H numbers very little attention is being paid to the Green party which is making great play this morning of their 7.4% in Haltemprice and Howden – their candidate’s site suggests it’s a party record. But in the absence of Labour and the Liberal Democrat candidates you would have thought that the Greens, the only other nationally known party with MEPs and councillors, would…
And why more abysmal election coverage by the BBC? So David Davis got his expected big victory in the early hours and the BBC showed once again with their minimal coverage of the count and lack of analysis that they have abandoned their case to be funded by a tax enforced by all the apparatus of the criminal law. Covering the electoral process at work should be the first priority for a public service broadcaster and they failed miserably. Sky,…
Turnout down to less than 35% The count is continuing in Halteprice and Howden with the result expected after 2am. one piece of information comes in a report in the Yorkshire Post suggesting a share of 75% for Davis with reasonable showing for the Green, the English Democrats and the victims rights campaigner Jill Saward. If the reported figures are right then Davis’s overall majority in terms of votes will be about double the margin he had over the Lib…
But will turnout be high enough to justify Davis’s stance? In admittedly very light trading what money there has been placed during the day on the Haltemprice and Howden by-election has been on David Davis being returned with a vote share of in excess of 80%. The above chart shows the changing price on Betfair’s market over the past 24 hours and the trend is clear. Those few punters who have been prepared to bet have put it on the…
Will Davis think that it’s all been worth it on Friday? When David Davis first made his extraordinary move to resign his seat and force a by-election I asked whether many people would remember the original cause on polling day. Well that is now only two days away and all the political focus is on another election several hundred miles away in Glasgow. It’s hard to see Davis being beaten in Haltemprice and Howden but turnout is likely to be…
Why should we believe them this time? Yet again this morning’s papers feature “senior ministers” who don’t want to be identified warning of dire consequences for Gordon Brown if Labour fails an upcoming electoral test. Sounds familiar? Yes – we’ve heard it all before. Just go back only a couple of months and the same was being said ahead of the local elections and the London Mayoral contest. Labour did badly and what happened? Brown stayed. Then later in May…