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Category: By elections

TMay needs a sizeable CON majority in Witney to deal with the “unelected PM” taunts

TMay needs a sizeable CON majority in Witney to deal with the “unelected PM” taunts

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A good by-election result will also reinforce her BREXIT strategy It is not TMay’s fault that she ended up as CON leader and PM without having to go through a membership ballot. Once Andrea Leadsom pulled out on that memorable Monday morning there was no further obstacle and she was assured of the leadership and the keys of Number 10. She just avoided several weeks of hustings, TV debates and campaigning which would allowed a much greater scrutiny of her…

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CON might have enjoyed double digit leads in the polls but has had a terribe month in local by-elections

CON might have enjoyed double digit leads in the polls but has had a terribe month in local by-elections

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Seats changing hands in September 2016 Liberal Democrats GAIN Four Lanes on Cornwall from United Kingdom Independence Party Conservatives GAIN Grangefield on Stockton on Tees from Labour Liberal Democrats GAIN Mosborough on Sheffield from Labour Liberal Democrats GAIN Tupton on North East Derbyshire from Labour Liberal Democrats GAIN Plasnewydd on Cardiff from Labour Labour GAIN Christchurch on Allerdale from Conservative Plaid Cymru GAIN Cilycwm on Carmarthenshire from Independent Labour GAIN Coatbridge North and Glenboig on North Lanarkshire from Scottish National Party…

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Dreadful set of local election results overnight sees CON lose 4 – their worst performance since TMay became leader

Dreadful set of local election results overnight sees CON lose 4 – their worst performance since TMay became leader

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LAB gain 3 and the LDs 2 LD GAIN Hadleigh on Suffolk CC from CON. The 3rd LD gain this week and 4th CON loss of night — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 23, 2016 Labour GAIN Arley & Whitacre (North Warwickshire) from Conservative. — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 22, 2016 Teignmouth Central (Teignbridge) result:LDEM: 51.1% (+28.3)CON: 29.8% (-12.6)UKIP: 11.6% (+11.6)LAB: 7.5% (-8.7) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 22, 2016 Christchurch (Allerdale) result:LAB: 40.7% (+5.8)LDEM: 29.4% (+20.0)CON: 25.9% (-19.3)UKIP: 4.0% (+4.0)…

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Remember: The only successful CON government by-election defence since 1988 is still subject to an Electoral Commission investigation

Remember: The only successful CON government by-election defence since 1988 is still subject to an Electoral Commission investigation

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All parties are going to be a lot more careful in Witney Partly because far fewer of their MPs have died in office the Tories have not faced many by-elections since returning to power in 2010. They lost to UKIP in Clacton and Rochester but held on in June 2014 in Newark. The latter, quite amazingly, was the first time that the Tories had successfully defended a Westminster by-election while in office since 1988. After their humiliating third place in…

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Betting on WH2016 & Witney plus prospects for a “LD fightback”- all looked at in latest PB/Polling Matters TV Show/ Podcast

Betting on WH2016 & Witney plus prospects for a “LD fightback”- all looked at in latest PB/Polling Matters TV Show/ Podcast

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With the first WH2016 TV debate due to take place next Monday Keiran Pedley (@KeiranPedley), Matthew Shaddick (@Shadsy) of Ladbrokes, and Leo Barasi (@leobarasi ) look at where the race stands and what the mass of polling is suggesting. In the UK the team look at the LDs who’ve just finished their conference and try to assess the chances of a fightback. With Shadsy on the show there’s a fair amount of focus on the betting particularly on WH2016 and…

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Who’ll win the LAB/LD/UKIP Witney battle for 2nd place in the parliament’s first CON Westminster by-election defence?

Who’ll win the LAB/LD/UKIP Witney battle for 2nd place in the parliament’s first CON Westminster by-election defence?

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Ordnance Survey Farron’s party is under most pressure to perform Betfair have now got up a Witney market on which party will be the winner excluding the Tories who clearly are red hot favourites to hold onto the seat that Cameron held from GE2001 until a week last Monday. Both the LAB and UKIP will have just gone through leadership elections and both UKIP’s Diana James and, presumably Corbyn will want a good result to stamp their authority on their…

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Labour’s local by-election woes continue

Labour’s local by-election woes continue

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Plasnewydd (Cardiff) result:LDEM: 48.1% (+15.4)LAB: 34.8% (-2.0)PC: 6.8% (-5.3)CON: 4.4% (-1.2)GRN: 3.6% (-9.3)UKIP: 2.4% (+2.4) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 20, 2016 Updated local by-elections gains/losses chart including latest LAB loss overnight pic.twitter.com/kdWuq4UpTF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 21, 2016

Why the LDs won’t be too unhappy if Corbyn is re-elected

Why the LDs won’t be too unhappy if Corbyn is re-elected

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Continued splits in LAB could help a rejuvenation of the yellows The LDs are gathering in Brighton for their annual conference which, unlike the coalition years, is barely getting any attention. That’s understandable. Having just 8 MPs and the Tories having a majority means they are not important anymore. The polls suggest they haven’t progressed from the 8% of GE2015 but there’s one glimmer of hope – they are doing remarkably well at a local level. They made the most…

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