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Category: BREXIT

Suddenly the money’s going on 2018 being the year of the next General Election

Suddenly the money’s going on 2018 being the year of the next General Election

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Exactly three weeks ago 2018 was rated as just a 3.8% on Betfair’s “Year of Next General Election” market. Tonight it has reached 18.3% and is now the third favourite. Clearly there is an enormous amount of political turbulence and TMay might find herself in trouble should the problems with Brexit continue but I’ve not shifted my view that the election will take place as planned in 2022. Rees-Mogg remains betting favourite for next PM. Thanks to Betdata.io for the…

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If the 7 Sinn Fein MPs take their seats TMay’s future & possibly Brexit would be down to the Tory EU rebels

If the 7 Sinn Fein MPs take their seats TMay’s future & possibly Brexit would be down to the Tory EU rebels

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Lots of talk about today of the possibility that the Irish nationalist party, Sinn Fein, taking up its MP seats at Westminster. A call has been made by the prime minister of the Irish Republic, Leo Varadkar, who is saying that the Sinn Fein MPs should take up their seats at Westminster in order to make things better for Ireland. On the face of it this seems simple but I’m am less sure. For a century Sinn Fein MPs who’ve…

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The Tory headache that no one talks about – the 3.2m GE2017 CON voters who backed Remain at the referendum

The Tory headache that no one talks about – the 3.2m GE2017 CON voters who backed Remain at the referendum

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These exceed the 2.6m GE2017 LAB leave voters by some margin We get lots of talk about Labour having to be mindful that a significant part of its voters at the last election also voted Leave in the referendum. But we don’t seem to hear much about what in terms of a percentage of the overall number of voters at the last election, the total of Conservative Remain voters exceeded them. The above chart which has been highlighted by Election…

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The CBI give a thumbs up to Corbyn and Brussels said to be looking “kindly” at speech

The CBI give a thumbs up to Corbyn and Brussels said to be looking “kindly” at speech

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CBI CBI give their backing to Corbyn's Brexit approachhttps://t.co/JYNzymgFAt via @CBItweets — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2018 Bloomberg reporting that Brussels might look kindly on the LAB planhttps://t.co/6cWZnLi6Yv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2018 Over to you Mrs. May

Corbyn speech has made TMay’s Brexit challenge even harder

Corbyn speech has made TMay’s Brexit challenge even harder

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The numbers get tighter The big black cloud that hangs over Mrs May and her team is the possibility that LAB MPs will be whipped to support an amendment backed by one of her Tory Rebels on Brexit. Since the failure to hold on to the Conservative majority on June 8th her path forward has always been precarious but what has not happened in a major way so far is for an issue to emerge that allows a united Labour…

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If LAB shifts a notch on Brexit and backs a CON rebel Commons move TMay could be in trouble

If LAB shifts a notch on Brexit and backs a CON rebel Commons move TMay could be in trouble

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TMay at risk of Commons defeat as LAB shifts on Brexit – dangerous times for the PM who lost the CON majority at GE17https://t.co/R7CfTtJKO3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2018 Crunch time for the embattled PM? Since her humiliating failure to retain the Conservative majority last June Theresa May has lived a charmed life. Who would have predicted on that weekend after the election that she could still be there in charge 9 months later. But she is though…

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Even Arron Banks now thinks we are heading for a second referendum

Even Arron Banks now thinks we are heading for a second referendum

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What I find interesting is that some Brexiteers seem to want one https://t.co/rxkbyCiWvx — Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) February 22, 2018 That’s been my view for a while , 2nd referendum is what we are heading for https://t.co/80eeEtmVMq — Arron Banks (@Arron_banks) February 22, 2018 But surely there isn’t the time before March 29th 2019?