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Category: BREXIT

This Bloomberg reports on the referendum, polling and the hedge funds is a must read

This Bloomberg reports on the referendum, polling and the hedge funds is a must read

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How the Betfair Brexit market moved on June 23/24 2016. Data/chart from @betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/5c0FjJCKxv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 25, 2018 I am assuming the ?@TheFCA? and ?@bankofengland? will be reading this impressive expose by ?@business? of what looks like market manipulation on the night the UK chose Brexit – and Sterling first rose and then slumped https://t.co/Fmv1cGdvuC — Robert Peston (@Peston) June 25, 2018 One thing the article does not cover is that there were strong rumours in the…

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If you can’t join them, beat them: Denmark, football, Maastricht and Brexit’s genesis

If you can’t join them, beat them: Denmark, football, Maastricht and Brexit’s genesis

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David Herdson looks back to 1992 They shouldn’t even have been there, and had it not been for the disintegration of Yugoslavia, they wouldn’t have been. However, they didn’t let their second chance go to waste and as the leaders of the twelve EC members met in Lisbon, the plucky Danes overturned the natural order of things and defeated Germany’s assumed unstoppable progress. As metaphors went, the football team’s 2-0 victory was perfect. 24 days earlier, the Danish electorate had…

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Punters now make it a 63% chance that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th next year

Punters now make it a 63% chance that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th next year

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Betdata.io The big unknown now is the Leave campaign funding investigation As can be seen from the chart the Brexit “will it happen on time” market has seen a fair bit of turbulence since the start of the year with YES now a 67% chance. The recent bumps have been cause by the progress of the exit bill through both houses of parliament. At the moment the one thing that we know about that could cause movement is the Electoral…

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Survation Brexit anniversary poll has REMAIN 5% ahead

Survation Brexit anniversary poll has REMAIN 5% ahead

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Chart – Survation By 48% to 25% those polled want a referendum on the final deal Tomorrow’s the second anniversary of the Brexit referendum and expect a number of polls seeking to gauge opinion now. First out is Survation for Good Morning Britain which finds that if the referendum was rerun today the UK would remain in the EU, for the first time since March with Survation. Leave 47% (-2); Remain 53% (+2) Significant percentages (36%-43%) of respondents have a…

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And so the “meaningful vote” issue gets put back into the bill by the Lords

And so the “meaningful vote” issue gets put back into the bill by the Lords

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New Lords defeat for government on Brexit 'meaningful vote' amendment https://t.co/QfOQmitOuC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 18, 2018 The problems for TMay mount I have to say that I haven’t been following politics tonight but the battle of Stalingrad. The problem here is that the ex-CON Attorney-General, Dominic Grieve, thought he had a deal last week when the bill was before the Commons and he didn’t push his original amendment. That ministers appear to have reneged on that arrangement was…

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If there was a CON leadership contest tomorrow my money would go on Javid and Hunt

If there was a CON leadership contest tomorrow my money would go on Javid and Hunt

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Betdata.io Theresa’s travails on Brexit over the past week have made it that bit less possible that she’ll survive as leader and PM to Brexit and beyond. I thought John Rentoul summed this up right in the Indy: “Until this week, I assumed May would be the prime minister who took us out of the EU in March. Her strategy of delay, procrastination and attrition isn’t pretty, and risks cutting the Brexit deadline fine, but it seemed to be working….

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Britain’s brittle stalemate

Britain’s brittle stalemate

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Lewisham East reveals the essential weakness of all three national parties Interpreting by-election results is very much in the eye of the beholder. Some, it’s true, are unambiguous in their outcome for one party or another. Lewisham East is not one such. Labour can happily chalk up that they got the job done without fuss. They won the seat and no clear challenger arose. However, it was nothing like a ringing endorsement. The turnout was dire (only the 16th occasion…

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Lewisham East: Five take aways

Lewisham East: Five take aways

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The result is almost exactly in line with the LDs canvas projection issued on Monday afternoon. This had LAB 49, LD 25, CON 17. https://t.co/zTGmdohYEq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 15, 2018 Voters tend to avoid avoidable by-elections The most striking statistic from the overnight result was the turnout which dropped from 69% at the general election just over a year ago to 33% yesterday. This is one of the biggest falls compared with the previous General Election on record…

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