Browsed by
Category: BREXIT

You can’t blame Bercow for enforcing what is a sensible precedent

You can’t blame Bercow for enforcing what is a sensible precedent

The real problem is the totally divided Tory Party The speaker, John Bercow, as you’d expect, gets a lot of stick from the right wing press this morning following his ruling yesterday stopping the tabling of the government motion for a third time. Sure a consequence of it is that it might make Brexit happening a tad less likely and that might be what Mr Bercow himself  wants. If he did go wrong, I’d suggest, it was not blocking last…

Read More Read More

The betting money’s going on the Commons approving the deal

The betting money’s going on the Commons approving the deal

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Up from a 16% chance to a 32% one in five days At the start of another dramatic week on Brexit in the Commons there has been more news of CON MPs saying they are ready to back the deal just 10 days away from the Article 50 deadline. What we don’t know is whether there will be enough of them in order to push the total beyond that which is required…

Read More Read More

The Leaver case for a second referendum

The Leaver case for a second referendum

A guest slot by Dots Once upon a time a grand and determined queen wanted to build a bold new home on the hilltop. Everyday her men would work hard to build the palace only to find on following day their work undone in piles of rubble. The queen was advised to seek help of a local boy born to a virgin mother. The boy advised why the palace could not be built, in a pool beneath the hill two…

Read More Read More

As Farage’s “mass” march heads South the ex-UKIP leader has branding problems if there are Euro elections

As Farage’s “mass” march heads South the ex-UKIP leader has branding problems if there are Euro elections

Do voters know that he’s quit UKIP? Given the Commons votes over the past week then there must be a chance that the UK will participate in the European Parliament elections at the end of May. Farage is now with his new Brexit party which would what would appear on the closed list ballot papers if elections are held. The problem here is that while UKIP enjoys a high level of awareness Farage’s new party has yet to establish itself….

Read More Read More

There could still be value in betting that the UK will leave on March 29th

There could still be value in betting that the UK will leave on March 29th

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange There are three big reasons why there might still be value in betting, currently 11%, on the UK leaving the EU on March 29th as laid down in the article 50 process. The first is Theresa May herself. She has been utterly determined and rigid over the past months and is still trying to get her deal through. There is clearly a growing realisation that if this does not happen on the…

Read More Read More

Osborne’s Standard has surely got this right – TMay is in office but not in power

Osborne’s Standard has surely got this right – TMay is in office but not in power

Today’s ?@EveningStandard?: PM is in office but not in power – as rebels take control, EU offers delay and Chancellor again suggests compromise deal pic.twitter.com/BAbPHLSf9c — George Osborne (@George_Osborne) March 14, 2019 As we move into the most difficult fortnight for a prime minister in decades the former Chancellor and now editor of The London Evening Standard, George Osborne, has come out with the above front page about Theresa May. He’s right. A situation where ministers feel able to ignore…

Read More Read More

And so MPs move on to vote against leaving the EU with no deal

And so MPs move on to vote against leaving the EU with no deal

Assuming that passes we move onto extending A50 So after last night’s excitement today’s focus is a new Commons vote at 7pm on ruling out the UK leaving the EU with no deal. Then we’ll get tomorrow’s Article 50 extension move. Assuming that both motions will pass from tomorrow the effort will be made to extend the Article 50 deadline. The question then will be put to the EU which will need all remaining EU members to agree. The overwhelming…

Read More Read More