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An overnight local election result that highlights how difficult it will be to call GE2019

An overnight local election result that highlights how difficult it will be to call GE2019

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Icknield (Luton) result: LAB: 36.7% (-5.6)CON: 35.4% (-8.8)LDEM: 25.6% (+12.1)GRN: 2.3% (+2.3) Labour GAIN from Conservative. — Britain Elects (@britainelects) September 26, 2019 We’ve seen big movements in the polls in recent months with Farage’s and the LDs move forward very strongly the latter often near tripling their GE2017 GB vote share of 7.6%. The local by-election above shows how the LD resurgence is going to make general election predictions that much harder. Swinson’s party will go into the election…

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These perceptions of Johnson could be critical in an election campaign

These perceptions of Johnson could be critical in an election campaign

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The above detailed data from today’s YouGov/Times poll should be of concern to the PM’s advisors as they wrench up the election rhetoric. The worst figures, I’d suggest, are on his perceived competence and whether he’s regarded as honest. On the first measure just 33% think he is competent against 50% who don’t. The honesty split of 22% honest to 52% dishonest and the fact that barely half of CON voters were ready to say “honest” opens up possible lines…

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Wasting Time? How the Article 50 extension has been used

Wasting Time? How the Article 50 extension has been used

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As we await the Supreme Court decision reflections on what’s happened since it was agreed in early April When the last Article 50 extension was obtained on 10 April, Donald Tusk said: “Please do not waste this time.”   So how has Britain used the 167 days since then? Well, it has certainly been busy. There has been no shortage of activity to keep even the most jaded of political journalists interested:- The then Prime Minister entered into discussions with the…

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The real issue, surely, is that Johnson does not have the confidence of the Commons and should have quit when the Benn bill passed

The real issue, surely, is that Johnson does not have the confidence of the Commons and should have quit when the Benn bill passed

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Anne Twomey, who literally wrote the book on the prerogative, has written an important blog post that cuts through much of the legal machinations: When is prorogation ‘improper’?https://t.co/GR7rMJ6Gkt The answer: if the government is seeking to avoid a vote of no confidence — Jack Simson Caird (@jasimsoncaird) September 19, 2019 The blog post above, which is well worth reading in full, from a leading academic expert on the prerogative articulates something which has not really been taken up before. The…

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In the General Election betting a CON majority drops from a 40%+ chance to a 29% one since MPs returned after the summer recess

In the General Election betting a CON majority drops from a 40%+ chance to a 29% one since MPs returned after the summer recess

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What happened when MPs took back control Until the afternoon of Tuesday September 3rd everything had been going well for Cummings and Johnson. The proroguement of Parliament cutting down the numbers of days before the October Brexit deadline when Johnson and his team would be subject to parliamentary scrutiny had been drastically slashed and all seemed on target. Then MPs moved to take control of the Commons agenda allowing the Benn bill to go through – a measure designed to…

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Halloween’s going to be a massive moment in British politics and it is hard to predict what’ll happen

Halloween’s going to be a massive moment in British politics and it is hard to predict what’ll happen

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When I went on my holiday two and a half weeks ago TSE and others made a big deal about this being an occasion when big political stories seem to break. Well that the events of the last two and a half weeks have more than proved that theory. Well I’m now heading back overland from Andalusia after my holiday in the Osborne (no relation) sherry town of El Puerto de Santa María and will be back in the UK…

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