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At exactly this stage before GE2017 punters rated TMay’s majority chances higher than they rate Johnson’s now

At exactly this stage before GE2017 punters rated TMay’s majority chances higher than they rate Johnson’s now

The final few days of Betfair betting in June 2017 Remember Kinnock at GE1992 It is perhaps worth reminding ourselves what happened last time and how the received opinion of those who risk their money betting on politics got it totally wrong. At exactly this point, 9.20am on the Tuesday beforehand, a CON majority traded at 81% on Betfair. Over the next two and half days it was to go even higher only for things to be brought back to…

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The number that should worry the Tories

The number that should worry the Tories

Andrew Neil’s attack on Johnson goes viral By 5am this morning, as my screen grab shows, there had been 3.3m views of the Andrew Neil video attacking Johnson for chickening out of doing an interview with him. That is a staggering number which doubt will increase during the day. No doubt the calculation in Number 10 was that the potential negative of being subject to 30 minutes of forensic scrutiny by Neil was worse than the downside of not taking…

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Johnson’s taking a big gamble avoiding Andrew Neil

Johnson’s taking a big gamble avoiding Andrew Neil

“It is not too late. We have an interview prepared. Oven-ready, as Mr Johnson likes to say” Andrew Neil issues a challenge for Boris Johnson to commit to an interview with him, to face questions on why people have “deemed him to be untrustworthy”https://t.co/daHLxEYn4r pic.twitter.com/oQ21uDdtJe — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) December 5, 2019 This’ll contine right through to next Thursday In this clip Neil makes a powerful case why Johnson should be there and if Tory strategy is that this could…

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Protecting Our Democracy?

Protecting Our Democracy?

Remember the Supreme Court cases on prorogation or Article 50? How irrelevant they seem if, as polls indicate, the Tories get a majority. With 7 days to go, can there be a better time to wheel out Wilson’s dictum about a week being a long time in politics?  There cannot. Consider it duly wheeled out. And yet the “Protect our Democracy” section in the Tory manifesto (pages 47-48, here) has not received the scrutiny it deserves. It starts with what some might consider a…

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Johnson is surely relatively safe in his Uxbridge & Ruislip constituency

Johnson is surely relatively safe in his Uxbridge & Ruislip constituency

At the referendum it was 56.4% Leave In some quarters quite a lot of people have been getting excited about Johnson possibly running into trouble in his Uxbridge & Ruislip constituency which he held at GE2017 with a majority of 5k+. In the chart I’ve shown the vote shares from last time and the projection by Prof Chris Hanratty on the party shares there at the May 23rd Euros. First thing to note is that this is not your typical…

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GE2019 has become increasingly about Johnson’s efforts to deflect scutiny

GE2019 has become increasingly about Johnson’s efforts to deflect scutiny

Conservative leader Boris Johnson refuses to commit to an interview with Andrew Neil before the general election https://t.co/cxnk4bMP2T pic.twitter.com/u1kYheea7r — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) November 28, 2019 These two ice sculptures – which represent the emergency on planet earth – will take the place of Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage tonight after they declined our invitation to attend a party leaders’ #ClimateDebate Tune in at 7pm on 4 and here on Twitter: https://t.co/GXl7XiFbgA pic.twitter.com/niPE5MLdGV — Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) November 28,…

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It looks as though Big Bold Boris could skip the Andrew Neil interview

It looks as though Big Bold Boris could skip the Andrew Neil interview

Tory source says better take the hit for ?than take the risk of @afneil. Happy Days! https://t.co/Xw7aWICrQp — Adam Boulton (@adamboultonSKY) November 27, 2019 If so could this be like TMay skipping the GE17 debates This hasn’t been confirmed yet but there appears to be a possibility that Johnson might not agree to do an Andrew Neil interview like the one that Nicola Sturgeon and Corbyn have already gone through. Adam Boulton’s Tweet sums this up – that the risk…

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