Brian Rose, the surprise second favourite for the London Mayoralty, is now out to 32 on Betfair
On Smarkets you can lay him for 26 In previous years when there has been a London mayoral election it has been a major political betting event. That has been much less so this year because the incumbent, Sadiq Khan, looks totally dominant and all the polling has him clearly ahead. This was one of those elections that should have taken place last May but has been put back because of COVID. The big betting story has been about the…
Command syndrome: Brexit and Covid have defined Johnson’s leadership style
Settling in – not even reverting – to being a normal PM will be tough, maybe impossible Boris Johnson is an oddity of a prime minister in many ways. For someone with such an impeccable establishment background, there’s a distinct air of the outsider to him. Maybe its that while he may be amusing and entertaining to many, he’s not especially clubbable; to be at the centre of attention, he has to be to some extent apart; he always…
The pressure mounts on Johnson ahead of Monday’s “COVID roadmap” statement
A cautious approach could be politically more challenging With COVID rates halving every two weeks, and cases looking to drop below 1,000 a day by the second week of April the Mail continues its pressure on the PM over his plans to ease the lockdown. This is going to be a highly tricky for the prime minister who is known to take a very liberal approach when it comes to imposing new regulations on the public. But the last thing…
Tonight’s big political bet – how many Senators will vote to impeach Trump?
Smarkets exchange chart The big political story in the US continues to be on Trump and tonight should see the end of his impeachment trial in the US Senate. For that to pass it needs two thirds of the 100 members to back in and all the signs are that is that not enough Republicans will take a gamble on what could put their future in jeopardy by backing the impeachment move. It did look and hour ago that the…
May 6th – the return of real elections and lots of data for political nerds to get stuck into
It has been a long wait but it looks almost certain that Thursday May 6th will see local and mayoral elections taking place once again. This will be in addition to the elections for the devolved parliaments in Scotland and Wales. The pandemic meant that no elections took place last May and none of the hundred of local council vacancies have been filled because by-elections have been covered as well. As a result this looks set to be just about…
The video played at the start of the Senate Impeachment hearing
This is powerful stuff and my guess it is more aimed at the country as a whole rather than the 100 senators who will decide Trump’s fate. Meanwhile on Betfair Trump is the favourite for the WH2024 nomination.
The Tories biggest challenge at the next general election: Starmer isn’t Corbyn
The main driver of the GE2019 “red wall” gains was the then LAB leader One of the key factors about Johnson’s electoral successes is that they have happened when he’s been up against LAB opponents who subsequently became massive negatives for their party. Thus Boris beat Ken Livingstone for the London Mayoralty in 2008 and 2012 and his 2019 general election victory was against Corbyn who by then had been hugely discredited. If as looks increasingly likely neither the Tories…