politicalbetting.com

The Wikipedia panel above shows the outcome of the general election in the Scottish constituency of Airdrie and Shottswhere where there will be a Westminster by-election in the first week of May. It looks as though the LAB defence of Hartlepool will take place on the same day. The Scottish vacancy follows the resignation of the sitting member Neil Gray to run in the corresponding seat in the Holyrood election. Labour could have a chance if the unionist vote gets…

Read More Read More

To put these numbers into context at the constituency vote for 2016 Welsh election the vote split was: LAB 34.7% CON 21.2% PC 20.5% LD 7.7% UKIP 12.5% So the Tories are getting very close to Labour helped enormously by UKIP’s successor party, Reform, only being on 3%. Also we have the “Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party polling 7% on the regional list. Could it be possible that the Welsh Tories could pull off a surprise here?

But will a grateful nation reward to the Tories? We all know what a huge political issue vaccinations has become in Europe over the past few months and the above table from Politico shows country-by-country how many have actually been jabbed. The UK’s dominance is quite remarkable and reflects the political decisions made last year to back the Oxford/AZC programme as well as place big orders with Pfizer. What I have found quite impressive has been the way vaccination centres…

Read More Read More

And Sturgeon maintains good lead in YouGov’s “well/badly” ratings With all the polling ahead of the Scottish election on May 6th the two sets of numbers I am following the most are the ones on Scottish independence and Nicola sturgeon’s personal ratings. The former I believe gives a good sense of support for the SNP’s main mission and that will be reflected in the outcome in the elections. The second good area to keep track of are Sturgeon’s personal ratings….

Read More Read More

 “A basic rule of government is …… never set up an inquiry unless you know in advance what its findings will be.” (Sir Humphrey to Jim Hacker, Yes Minister 1980). The government must have felt confident it was following this golden – if cynical – rule when Lord Faulks QC was appointed to chair the panel inquiring into judicial review. A Conservative justice Minister (now unaffiliated peer). A lawyer who publicly criticised the Supreme Court’s decision on prorogation and who…

Read More Read More

In today’s poll the percentage of those in the 16-34 segment saying they are following the advice ‘mostly’ or ‘entirely’ – is now 58% down from 65% in January. These slight changes in behaviour are not confined to just the young. Overall amongst UK adults, there is a slight decrease in those who say they are ‘entirely’ following the Government’s advice 31% for the week ending 21st March. This is a 4% drop from the proportion who said the same…

Read More Read More

Two of the last five polls have the lead down at 2% Having hit the extraordinary polling margin on 13% at the start of the month the latest polls in the Wikipedia table the most recent published surveys have gaps nowhere nearly as large. In fact as can be seen two of the latest five surveys have it at just 2%. Maybe the novelty of the what should be regarded as a very successful vaccination programme is starting to wear…

Read More Read More