politicalbetting.com

Normally questions like the above about a leading politician produce a fairly sharpish split between those who support the party of the person being assessed and those who don’t. That’s why this latest polling on Johnson by YouGov should be so worrying for those concerned about future election success for the party. That 49% of CON voters hold the view that he generally behaves unethically is not good and will be noted by the growing number of Tories who are…

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But we are close to crossover With everything else that is happening we have barely looked at the next general election betting and the latest position is in the chart above. The Tories are now down to a 51.55% chance for most seats with LAB not far behind. From past and costly experience I’ve learned that long range general election bets should be best avoided except if they offer incredible value. Why tie up your money for nearly two years…

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The LDs in the Devon by-election have issued internal polling based on thousands of separate contacts with voters in the constituency which they claim has them just 2% behind the Tories. This has the Tories on 46% with the LDs on 44%. It should be noted that the party issued similar data at this stage ahead of Richmond Park (2016), Brecon & Radnorshire (2019), Chesham & Amersham (2021) and Shropshire North (2021). In each case the “polling” understated what they…

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There are some well-worn memes doing the rounds following the ECHR decision yesterday on deportation flights to Rwanda. Many contain a number of factual errors and so, like the very busy editor of the Guardian’s Corrections section, let’s shed some light on these. The government’s policy has been declared illegal by European judges. No, it hasn’t. There will be a full court hearing in the English courts in three weeks time to assess the claims made by various appellants that…

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I can’t decide which way the Rwanda flight ban is going to go in terms of how it impacts on public opinion – eight days before the crucial Wakefield and Devon by-elections. Two of the front pages use the word “farce” which rather sums things up This dominates the papers this morning and the fact that it is a European institution that has intervened only adds to the confusion. The ECHR, of course, is not part of the EU and…

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The chart from Smarkets shows the latest betting on who will be the next Conservative leader. The big change is that Jeremy Hunt’s position at the top of the betting has now been moved and Penny Mordaunt takes his place. She maybe favourite but she’s only rated as a 13% chance just slightly ahead of Hunt with several other leading Tories not far behind. The big thing about this market is that there is no vacancy and there is not…

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Betting on the Wakefield by-election has been a bit boring because it is blindingly obvious that LAB is going to retake the seat that it lost at GE2019 and the current odds of 98% are simply not tempting. The Tories, the incumbent, should be the runner up and that leaves 3rd place which could be interesting and on which Smarkets have a new market. The LDs are putting all their efforts into Tiverton and are not active here. You can…

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But at 79% the LDs are still very strong favourites There’s been bit of a move upwards for the Tories in the Tiverton and Honiton by-election betting. The election takes place a week on Thursday and already many postal voters are reported to have cast their ballots. The latest on Betfair has the Tories now a 20% chance with the LDs on 79%. Certainly, Davey’s party are throwing a lot at this seat and their leaflet above sets out their…

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