The betting chart shows the movements on the general election outcome that have taken place over the last 6-months. As can be seen a hung parliament and a Labour majority are now running head to head with a Conservative majority down as a 17% chance. Given the recent very strong polling for LAB then it might be argued that the party should be favourite to win an overall majority.. There seems to be the view that the current polls with…
It was on September 23rd that Kwasi Kwarteng delivered his now infamous budget – the first big move by the Liz Truss government. At the time the Tories were polling relatively well even though they were still behind. These were the three polls immediately before his statement: Techne 7% LAB lead YouGov 8% LAB lead Opinium 5% LAB lead The response of the market was terrifying and the following day the pound reached an all-time low against the American dollar….
My guess is that over the next couple of years we’re going to see quite a number of stories like that involving the former Health Secretary, Hancock, in the papers this morning. Given what is happening in the polls it is very hard to envisage more than a handful of Tories remaining after the general election and all 360 Tory MPs must be worried about their job security. Even those sitting MPs with substantial majorities will find it hard to…
This is certainly one of the most interesting new developments today and the BBC has got it right. I’m sure they will have a different lead for other bulletins tonight. TV news bulletins should essentially be about what is different about the world today compared with yesterday that will interest the audience. The Hancock move also highlights a bigger issue of whether our elected representatives should be doing this. I am sure we all recall the fuss when the Nadine…
Above is the Smarkets betting market on who will be the prime minister after the next general election. As can be seen punters are still very strongly with Starmer while Sunak is down as a 23% chance. Clearly there is a very long way to go but Sunak’s prospects don’t look good given how poorly the party has been performing in the opinion polls. There has been some improvement but we need to see what happens in the next few…
The US mid-term elections, taking place a week tomorrow, look as though they’re going to be very tight indeed. The Republicans appear certain to take the House of Representatives but in the Senate it is a completely different picture and there’s a good chance that the Democrats will be able to hold on to control of the Senate. At the moment the Democratic-Republican split in the Senate is 50-50 which means that the Vice President Kamala Harris has the casting…
Although things are slightly better on the poll chart for the Tories the party still has very substantial double-digit deficits to make-up if it is to stand any chance at all at the next election of remaining in power. On the face of it this looks impossible. Sunak has got into a bit of a mess with his Home Sec appointment and that is going to take some explaining. Best poll for the party since Sunak took over was Opinium…
The sure way of knowing that the Tories are in serious trouble is when they they seek to associate Starmer with his predecessor Corbyn. Even Sunak got into the act at his first PMQs. Back at GE2019 a strategy of reminding voters of the Corbyn connection played a big part in Johnson’s victory but it is much harder to get it to resonate now. Time has moved on. I just wonder whether Labour could use the same approach reminding voters…