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Category: Article 50

The Tusk Tweets that suggest TMay is facing an uphill task

The Tusk Tweets that suggest TMay is facing an uphill task

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Today our most important task is to prevent a no deal #Brexit. I hope that tomorrow we will hear from PM @theresa_may a realistic suggestion on how to end the impasse. https://t.co/ko9UGhtaJd pic.twitter.com/Rm9fNXwyks — Charles Michel (@eucopresident) February 6, 2019 I've been wondering what that special place in hell looks like, for those who promoted #Brexit, without even a sketch of a plan how to carry it out safely. — Charles Michel (@eucopresident) February 6, 2019 It is extraordinary that…

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The resilient PM ploughs on to March 29th and her running down the clock strategy might just work

The resilient PM ploughs on to March 29th and her running down the clock strategy might just work

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In a very uncertain political environment in the UK one thing we can predict with some certainty is that these few months in British politics will be the focus of massive amount of study and examination in decades to come. How did we get to where we are and most of all was the PM’s approach the right one? I just wonder how she is going to be regarded by history. She was a Remainer she took the view on…

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The indications are that the Article 50 exit might have to be put back

The indications are that the Article 50 exit might have to be put back

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Cabinet ministers who believe it may be necessary to extend A50 include to finalise deal include: Jeremy HuntSajid JavidAndrea LeadsomDavid GaukeAmber RuddLiam FoxDamian HindsGreg Clark Interestingly they span Brexit divide. There’s no consensus yet but could soon be — Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) January 31, 2019 This impacts of the “Will Brexit happen on Schedule” betting Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Ahead of this afternoon’s May-Corbyn meeting the two leaders get warmed up with a spiky PMQs exchange

Ahead of this afternoon’s May-Corbyn meeting the two leaders get warmed up with a spiky PMQs exchange

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Jeremy Corbyn: "None of that was very clear to me, I don't know about anybody else" Labour leader is unimpressed by Theresa May's answer on "alternative arrangements" to replace the Irish backstop in #Brexit deal#PMQs updates: https://t.co/1SWYMqgzLk pic.twitter.com/VmJW0qvPhy — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) January 30, 2019 If we were to predict the outcome of this afternoon’s historic meeting face-to-face meeting between TMay and Mr Corbyn based on what happened at today’s PMQs it is hard to see this taking things very…

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Why after last night the value Brexit bet is on the UK leaving the EU on March 29th

Why after last night the value Brexit bet is on the UK leaving the EU on March 29th

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Overnight I have been amongst a number of punters betting on the Betfair Brexit market that the UK WILL leave the EU on March 29th. The Tweet exchange at the top between Phil Collins of the Times and YouGov’s Marcus Roberts sums up simply the reasoning. Essentially TMay’s long term strategy of getting her deal through could succeed because it becomes the only option on the table. Her trip to Brussels is not likely to produce the change that the…

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With 60 days to go the uncertainty is greater than ever

With 60 days to go the uncertainty is greater than ever

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Betdata.io Ahead of the crunch parliamentary week punters don’t think the March 29 exit will happen One of the good things about betting trend charts is that they are a way of seeing how opinions, at least of those who ready to risk money betting on politics, are developing over time. We are today exactly 60 days before the Article 50 deadline expires when the UK is due to leave the EU. Yet it is still far from clear whether…

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Coming to a Brexit near you: Rejoin

Coming to a Brexit near you: Rejoin

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Britain leaving the EU will close a chapter, not the book Whether the UK leaves the EU is still just about a question of ‘if’ as well as (or instead of) ‘when’, although of course ‘if’, being open-ended, isn’t of itself very meaningful. Suffice to say that the not-very-liquid Betfair market on Brexit date has ‘not before 2022’ at 4.2 – or, in percentage terms, a 24% chance. This is now slightly shorter than the 4.4 best price on 2019Q1:…

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Chancellor Hammond is right: extending the Article 50 deadline won’t produce a Brexit compromise

Chancellor Hammond is right: extending the Article 50 deadline won’t produce a Brexit compromise

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Hammond this morning on Bloomberg says "there is clearly no majority in Parliament" for a 2nd referendum. Says delaying article 50 would remove the "ticking clock"; "If you take that away, people will keep promoting their preferred outcome rather than seeking compromise" — Tamara Cohen (@tamcohen) January 25, 2019 And why for some No deal is so appealing Good by @TomKibasi from Tues on why no-deal Brexit is so attractive https://t.co/f1OLa7znVd pic.twitter.com/8izswk4wNN — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) January 25, 2019 Mike…

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