No deal by March 30 drops to a 14% chance 0500 UPDATE Leaving the EU on schedule rated as a 19% chance The charts, generated by Betdata.io are based on live betting movements on the Betfair Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
He’s LAB’s deputy with his own separate mandate It is very hard to think of any other organisation where a deputy can operate in the manner that Tom Watson is doing at the moment. His response to the defection of nine MPs has been very much to sympathize recognising the culture within the party that led to their decisions. He’s also forwarded to the leadership 50 cases of anti-semitism which he wants investigating. You wonder what Seamus Milne, Len McCluskey,…
For all the different polling questions being asked at the moment I prefer tracker questions which use the same format in the same way in poll after poll to get an historical picture of how things are developing. The best, as I repeatedly argue, are leader ratings which rarely get the attention they deserve often being ignored completely by the media outlets that commission them. Unlike voting intention surveys which seek to establish what respondents might or might not do…
Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange And its a 22% chance that the UK will leave as planned on March 29th Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
In exactly five weeks time at 11pm GMT the UK is due to leave the EU following the procedure laid down in Article 50. With time running out and the threat of a no-deal getting closer three cabinet ministers have taken it into their hands to break all notions of cabinet government and write a piece for the Daily Mail. Their action appears to be designed to blunt the plans of the Toey Brexit group the ERG who are using…
One of the most controversial terms in the current UK political climate is BINO – Brexit in Name only. Its usage derives from a previous US election where Republicans not deemed to be ideologically pure were dismissed as RINOs – Republican in Name Only. To the hardline anti-EUer BINO is a way categorising any move not thought to be pure enough as being a sell-out. To the hardline Remainers it raises the question of “what the hell is the point?”….
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange The route to any other outcome is fraught with difficulties You might think that with 94% of the time between the referendum and the scheduled Brexit Day now gone, we’d have some idea as to when and how Britain will be leaving the EU. Arguments about conceptual arrangements would have been better had in 2016 rather than in the final weeks. Instead, even the question as to whether the country will leave…
It’s possible the UK could end up with a Labour Brexit To me the biggest development of the day was the response by Donald Tusk to the Labour proposal for Brexit. The details envisage a softer brexit then Theresa May’s plan but because of the numbers in the Commons there’s a good chance that this is what could actually be agreed. If so that will be remarkable and something and it’s almost without precedent. Labour could claim that this was…