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Category: Article 50

Betting opinion moves sharply against TMay’s chances of getting her deal through

Betting opinion moves sharply against TMay’s chances of getting her deal through

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The past 24 hours on the "when will the Betfair Commons pass" the vote market@betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/4wzQAggTTw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 12, 2019 Spread-betting punters on @sportingindex getting even more negative over Government's prospects tonight Latest spread 240-250 down 28 votes in past 75 minuteshttps://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 … — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 12, 2019 A bid to extend the Article 50 timetable seems the most likely outcome It’s been a very big and active betting morning with punters seeking to gamble…

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Now all eyes are on the DUP – if they’re happy then a deal more likely

Now all eyes are on the DUP – if they’re happy then a deal more likely

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"In politics sometimes you get a second chance. It is what we do with this that counts, because there will be no third chance" EC President Jean-Claude Juncker says an instrument for the NI backstop has been agreed on Latest #Brexit updates: https://t.co/SdXiYVSiTb pic.twitter.com/fNIHzpDfmI — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) March 11, 2019 It all depends on Cox and Dodds now. — Philip Collins (@PhilipJCollins1) March 11, 2019 The Brexit betting market with one of the biggest movements in the past hour…

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Surely an Article 50 extension should be used to allow a proper investigation into the legitimacy of Leave’s victory

Surely an Article 50 extension should be used to allow a proper investigation into the legitimacy of Leave’s victory

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From the Washington Post – The more we learn about Brexit, the more crooked it looks https://t.co/rmejtfcSzK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2019 The UK cannot take such a giant step while questions are still unanswered One of the thing’s that’s been quite extraordinary since June 2016 is, with one or two major exceptions, that the UK media has been reluctant to delve into questions over how the campaign operated. The result is now that the UK is edging…

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If Brexit doesn’t happen on the March 29th Article 50 deadline then it might not happen at all

If Brexit doesn’t happen on the March 29th Article 50 deadline then it might not happen at all

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Mrs May should have declared her deal a triumph As we move closer to the critical votes next week on Brexit the betting markets remain uncertain as to what is going to happen. The chart above shows a market that we’ve not featured on PB before – when will the UK actually leave the EU. If Theresa May gets her deal through then the chances are that the March 29th deadline could…

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If LAB is serious about a second referendum it must seek a 6+ month A50 extension

If LAB is serious about a second referendum it must seek a 6+ month A50 extension

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Will it table the necessary amendment or is it all just words? Enthusiastic it was not. The Labour leadership finally adopting the policy set out at Conference of seeking a second referendum, now that a general election is not a viable means of stopping Brexit, came with all the keenness of toddler being encouraged to eat spinach. Even now, Corbyn is happy to mix notional support for a referendum with ‘other solutions’ being on the table. This matters because in…

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A Dilemma

A Dilemma

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So, let’s imagine. It’s the Ides of March.  MPs have voted against Mrs May’s Deal (again). They’ve voted against No Deal. They’ve voted in favour of an extension. Through gritted teeth Mrs May announces to Parliament that she and her faithful sherpa, Olly Robbins, will be off to Brussels (again) to agree a short extension. By now, one imagines, they must have their own personal Eurostar carriage and enough Belgian chocolate, vacuum-packed mussels and frozen frites in their larder to…

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Punters now make it a 77% chance that MPs won’t agree a deal by the end of March

Punters now make it a 77% chance that MPs won’t agree a deal by the end of March

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Lots of betting activity as we move closer to March – the month when the UK is due to leave the EU. The big issue is whether MPs will agree a deal and the view of the betting markets, as seen in the Betdata.io chart, is that its a 77% chance that it won’t happen. It is important here to check the exact terms of Betfair’s market before risking your cash. “When will the House of Commons vote through a…

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