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Category: Article 50

The betting chances of Commons agreeing deal before March 30th move up sharply to 43%

The betting chances of Commons agreeing deal before March 30th move up sharply to 43%

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange The main betting mover on another day of high drama on brexit has been on the when will the Commons pass a brexit vote market. Before PMQs this was rated as a 26.8% chance and then with what Theresa May said and other indications this has now gone to 43%. There seems to be increasing confidence that Theresa May’s long term strategy of getting her deal because the alternatives are worse through…

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Not before 2022 now joint favourite with Q2 2019 for when Brexit happens

Not before 2022 now joint favourite with Q2 2019 for when Brexit happens

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange So much potentially could happen in the ten  days that remain between now and March 29th it is inevitable that there has been an enormous amount of movement on this Betfair  market on when Brexit will actually happen. As can be seen Q2 2019 has dropped very sharply in the last few days partly in response to the difficulty Mrs May has had in getting support for her deal and partly due…

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While all the focus is Speaker Bercow

While all the focus is Speaker Bercow

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And if you haven’t seen this MAY: You're SURE it's gone?GRAYLING: DefinitelyMAY: You know 100% that the Article 50 revocation fax was sent?GRAYLING: Oh yesMAY: Phew because it's 00:01GRAYLING: I did it personallyMAY: Wait… what?! <in Brussels> JUNKER: What is this?BARNIER: A picture of an envelope — John Bull (@garius) March 18, 2019 The main overnight Brexit news Brexit latest: Theresa May drawing up letter to Donald Tusk to formally request one 9-12 month Brexit delay, but with an escape…

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Bercow’s ruling adds to the Brexit uncertainty

Bercow’s ruling adds to the Brexit uncertainty

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It’s looking more like TMay will have to ask for more time So another day and more uncertainty over what is going to happen over brexit just 11 days away from the March 29th article 50 deadline. The Commons speaker, John Bercow, ruled in the house this afternoon that the government could not bring the deal plan back to the house for a further vote. He was applying the the rule that in any one session The Commons can only…

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There could still be value in betting that the UK will leave on March 29th

There could still be value in betting that the UK will leave on March 29th

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange There are three big reasons why there might still be value in betting, currently 11%, on the UK leaving the EU on March 29th as laid down in the article 50 process. The first is Theresa May herself. She has been utterly determined and rigid over the past months and is still trying to get her deal through. There is clearly a growing realisation that if this does not happen on the…

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Punters make it a 26% chance that Brexit won’t happen before 2022 – if at all

Punters make it a 26% chance that Brexit won’t happen before 2022 – if at all

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Doubts rise following the failure to agree a deal With MPs continuing with the voting on the amendments to the article 50 motion the chart above features a Betfair betting exchange market that I have not put on the site before. This is when will be the actual date of the UK’s exit. If you do not believe it is going to happen then you bet on the not before 2022 option…

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Osborne’s Standard has surely got this right – TMay is in office but not in power

Osborne’s Standard has surely got this right – TMay is in office but not in power

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Today’s ?@EveningStandard?: PM is in office but not in power – as rebels take control, EU offers delay and Chancellor again suggests compromise deal pic.twitter.com/BAbPHLSf9c — George Osborne (@George_Osborne) March 14, 2019 As we move into the most difficult fortnight for a prime minister in decades the former Chancellor and now editor of The London Evening Standard, George Osborne, has come out with the above front page about Theresa May. He’s right. A situation where ministers feel able to ignore…

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And so MPs move on to vote against leaving the EU with no deal

And so MPs move on to vote against leaving the EU with no deal

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Assuming that passes we move onto extending A50 So after last night’s excitement today’s focus is a new Commons vote at 7pm on ruling out the UK leaving the EU with no deal. Then we’ll get tomorrow’s Article 50 extension move. Assuming that both motions will pass from tomorrow the effort will be made to extend the Article 50 deadline. The question then will be put to the EU which will need all remaining EU members to agree. The overwhelming…

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