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Category: Article 50

Remember this from June 23/24 2016 – the final 12 hours on the Brexit referendum betting markets

Remember this from June 23/24 2016 – the final 12 hours on the Brexit referendum betting markets

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As the polls closed punters rated Remain as a 93.5% chance With Brexit totally dominating the political scene at the moment I thought it might be useful to look back to the night of June 23rd 2016 when the referendum results came in and how the betting markets reacted. Just before the polls close the then UKIP leader, Nigel Farage, conceded defeat. YouGov published a poll taken during the day showing with a clear lead and news of these figures…

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On the third day of Christmas, our MPs sent to me – a general election?

On the third day of Christmas, our MPs sent to me – a general election?

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How the Brexit vote, a VoNC and the FTPA could create Christmas chaos Poldark is not a documentary. As with many a period drama, it captures in the mirror as much of a picture of the era in which the adaptation was made as that in which it’s set. That’s not just true of the characters and their actions but of the world around them. To take one example, the ease and comfort with which they appear to nip up…

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Geoffrey Cox for next CON leader? He’s head and shoulders above the rest

Geoffrey Cox for next CON leader? He’s head and shoulders above the rest

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At 50/1 a good bet? These are quite extraordinary times and one of the “stars” to have emerged has been the Attorney General, Geoffrey Cox – someone who first came to many people’s attention when he introduced TMay at October’s CON conference. I thought he did brilliantly yesterday handling what was a very difficult issue for the government and no doubt will be seeing more of him later. He’s not someone who has been mentioned much as a prospective CON…

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The chances of the UK leaving the EU on March 29th are surely greater than 54%

The chances of the UK leaving the EU on March 29th are surely greater than 54%

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Betdata.io With so many big things happening in UK politics as the March 29 EU exit deadline gets nearer one of they key betting markers is surely “Will the UK leave the EU as planned on March 29th next year?”. The chart above shows the moves on Betfair over the past month. It strikes me that the current betting price that it will happen of 54% is an understatement giving the machinations that would have to happen in order for…

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If TMay has to go quickly then, surely, Javid or Hunt should be favourites for “Emergency PM”

If TMay has to go quickly then, surely, Javid or Hunt should be favourites for “Emergency PM”

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She'll never resign. But, this hinges on hunt and javid – the two biggest beasts and leadership frontrunners for emergency PM. If they say time is up then time is up. — Iain Martin (@iainmartin1) December 2, 2018 Both might be worth a punt for next PM I’ve long taken the view that Theresa May is not going to resign voluntarily before her mission of handling brexit and taking the UK out of the EU has been accomplished. However the…

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Survation-Daily Mail poll finds growing support for TMay’s Brexit deal

Survation-Daily Mail poll finds growing support for TMay’s Brexit deal

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Now more support than oppose The big overnight Brexit news is a Survation poll for the Daily Mail conducted yesterday which is being splashed all over its front page as can be seen above. The big news is that on comparative questions there has been a significant increase in those supporting the deal compared with similar questions which were put by Survation in a poll on November 15th. Clearly this is good news for Theresa May who has started to…

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After an historic morning in Brussels the betting remains that Brexit will happen on time & TMay will survive until at least 2019

After an historic morning in Brussels the betting remains that Brexit will happen on time & TMay will survive until at least 2019

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The uncertainties remain I’m taking profits on my TMay surviving 2018 bet because I think there’s just an outside chance that she could quit if the Commons votes against her plan. That would happen before Christmas. One thing that’s happened during her premiership is that ultimately she’s won just about all the main votes on Brexit. Things might look bleak now but is Labour really going to risk being tarred with having made a no deal exit to actually happen?…

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Get ready for possibly the Xmas TV event of the year – May v Corbyn on the Brexit deal

Get ready for possibly the Xmas TV event of the year – May v Corbyn on the Brexit deal

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Number 10 so confident of May’s knowledge of the withdrawal agreement that they are considering challenging a Corbyn to a debate on it ahead of the meaningful vote on the 12th of December https://t.co/lnkGQ03DIT — James Forsyth (@JGForsyth) November 24, 2018 Would Corbyn agree? According to ‘James Forsyth in the Sun: “May herself is confident about selling her deal. She knows the withdrawal agreement backwards. Her copy of it is marked up with reference tabs and she relishes mocking Corbyn…

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