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The hearing with Trump’s ex-lawyer, Michael Cohen, doesn’t bode well for the President

The hearing with Trump’s ex-lawyer, Michael Cohen, doesn’t bode well for the President

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In the US the big political news has been the appearance before a Congressional committee of Michael Cohen, Trump’s former lawyer who is set to go to prison in May after being convicted last year. The Republicans on the committee have been seeking to discredit him but his comments could have a big impact on WH2020. A good flavour of the hearing is from this exchange between Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ) and Michael Cohen during today’s House Oversight Committee: GOSAR:…

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Based on current Betfair WH2016 odds why Nate Silver thinks Beto O’Rourke is the most likely Democratic VP pick

Based on current Betfair WH2016 odds why Nate Silver thinks Beto O’Rourke is the most likely Democratic VP pick

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This is from a discussion on Nate’s site – Fivethirtyeight on Beto O’Rourke’s chances of becoming his party’s Vice Presidential nominee. This is, of course, chosen by the nominee for President and takes place just before the convention. He notes. Here’s why: 1) There’s about a 55 percent chance (per Betfair) that the nominee will not be a white dude. 2) If the nominee is not a white dude, the VP probably will be a white dude. 3) The other…

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The WH2020 Democratic nomination race: Sanders and O’Rourke best placed for the early rounds fundraising

The WH2020 Democratic nomination race: Sanders and O’Rourke best placed for the early rounds fundraising

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Chart compiled by New York Times In the smartphone age digital donors are paramount Over the weekend the New York Times published the above chart showing the number of potential online financial supporters that those who have declared that they are running for the Democratic nomination and those who are tipped to put their hat into the ring have available to them. Given that there are strict US rules on the maximum that an individual can give to a contender…

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Punters start backing O’Rourke again after he tells Oprah he’ll make his mind up by the end of the month

Punters start backing O’Rourke again after he tells Oprah he’ll make his mind up by the end of the month

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And Biden’s plans remain a mystery The big developments in the WH2020 race have been an appearance by one-time Democratic nomination favourite, Beto O’Rourke on Oprah’s V show and reports on BuzzFeed that the man toping the nomination polling, 76 year old Joe Biden, has made no contact at all with the states that hold their primaries first. O’Rourke, who seemed to to be in a strong position after running Ted Cruz close in last November’s Texas race, had barely…

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Yet another Democrat Senator prepares to fight for the WH2020 party nomination

Yet another Democrat Senator prepares to fight for the WH2020 party nomination

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange For those not following this on a daily basis the fight to become the Democratic nominee gets even more complicated whenever you look at. The latest news is that Minnesota Democrat Senator Amy Klobuchar is heading to Iowa a sure sign that a presidential bid is in prospect. Other Democratic party senators to have declared are Elizabeth Warren, Tulsi Gabbard, Kamala Harris and Kirsten Gillibrand. On top of that the old-timer duo…

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Trump’s approval now ratings far worse far worse than at the midterms when the Dems gained 41 house seats

Trump’s approval now ratings far worse far worse than at the midterms when the Dems gained 41 house seats

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RealClearPolitics The big political polling numbers that get most attention in US politics are the President’s approval ratings and these are seen to be good predictors of electoral outcome. Thus the 10% approval deficit that Trump had ahead of the November midterms was enough for pundits to predict that the Republicans would lose the House by some margin. That is what happened. Since then we’ve had the government shutdown when 800k federal employees went without pay for nearly 5 weeks,…

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Beto O’Rourke says he can’t decide whether to run for the Presidency or become a teacher

Beto O’Rourke says he can’t decide whether to run for the Presidency or become a teacher

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The one-time Democratic nominee favourite still pondering WH2020 Beto O’Rourke, the former congressman from El Paso in Texas, has not really been heard from since pushing Ted Cruz very close in the Senate race last November in a race that received huge amount of media attention. His campaigning and fundraising ability to mobilise a very large volunteer force and raise a huge amount of cash all led to speculation that he might be the one who would take on Trump…

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Kamala Harris makes strong start to her WH2020 campaign and is already attracting endorsements

Kamala Harris makes strong start to her WH2020 campaign and is already attracting endorsements

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My 66/1 tip from January 2017 now the clear frontrunner Even though we are a year off the first WH2020 primaries the former Attorney General for California and now Senator, Kamala Harris, is top slot in the betting and in pole position for the Democratic party nomination. Her campaign was launched a week last Monday and on Sunday a crowd estimated at 20k turned up in her home city of Oakland for her first campaign rally. Last night she appeared…

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