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All could change in the WH2020 nomination race on the evening of February 3rd in the midwest state of Iowa

All could change in the WH2020 nomination race on the evening of February 3rd in the midwest state of Iowa

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Current odds on the Democratic nominee: Biden 25%, Warren 22%, Harris 19%, Sanders 11%, Buttigieg 6%, Yang 4% pic.twitter.com/rVaaaZz3pN — BetData (@betdatapolitics) August 6, 2019 The betting is clear. Former vice president and 2 times White House campaign failure, Jo Biden, is back as favourite in the betting on the Democratic nomination on Betfair. It is hard to see any real change here except some of the long shots pulling out of the race between now and the Iowa caucuses…

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Biden back as favourite for the nomination after Harris fails to follow on from her first debate sucess

Biden back as favourite for the nomination after Harris fails to follow on from her first debate sucess

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Biden was probably the debate “winner” There’ve been big movements in the WH2020 Democratic nomination betting following last night’s second part of the latest round of debates including Biden and Kamala Harris. Unlike the first debate in June when Harris launched effectively herself with a biting attack on 76 year old Biden this time there was no repetition and she herself came under sharp fire. A month ago Harris got to a near 40% chance on the Betfair exchange which…

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Frontrunners Sanders and Warren get the edge in the latest Democratic WH2020 nominationdebate

Frontrunners Sanders and Warren get the edge in the latest Democratic WH2020 nominationdebate

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Little change in the betting apart from Sanders moving up 2% The second round of Democratic nomination debates has once again been split into two because there are so many candidates still in the race who met the organisers qualification rules. This means that not all the front runners were on stage together and last night we were without Joe Biden who leads in the polls and Kamala Harris who currently leads in the betting. At the next debate in…

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Biden drops to second place in California while his lead’s down to just 4 in New Hampshire

Biden drops to second place in California while his lead’s down to just 4 in New Hampshire

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Another American White House race is starting to dominate political betting which is a  reminder of just how how long PB has been going.  WH2020 contest will be the fifth such race that PB has covered and, indeed, it was the battle for the Democratic nomination in 2004 that first prompted me to create the site. Even though the first states to decide on Democratic and GOP nomination won’t be for nearly six months the debates have started and the…

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Punters continue to rate Trump as having a near 50% chance of winning a second term

Punters continue to rate Trump as having a near 50% chance of winning a second term

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Betdata.io chart of Betfair exchange The polls, though, have the top 4 Democrats beating him We’ve not looked at the main WH2020 market for some time – who’ll win the next hear’s White House race and as the chart shows what movement there’s been on the Betfair exchange has been towards the controversial incumbent. At the moment, of course, the Democrats are maybe a year away from deciding who their nominee shall be and it is only when that becomes…

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The threat to Obamacare, not Trump’s Tweets and tantrums, could be what costs him WH2020

The threat to Obamacare, not Trump’s Tweets and tantrums, could be what costs him WH2020

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RealClearPolitics As we saw at the Midterms eroding what’s become an entitlement is politically dangerous I think that it is very easy for those of us who are engrossed with politics, that’s just about all those who follow PB, to pay too much attention to the personalities and not to the substance of what’s involved. Last November the Democrats did remarkably well in the midterm elections and now have a rock-solid majority in the House. Unfortunately the Senate seats they…

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Might Trump be impeached after leaving office?

Might Trump be impeached after leaving office?

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Losing in 2020 might just be the start of the game Obscure corners of the US constitution were made for delving into, particularly when they interact with a scenario which is not wholly implausible: in this case, a post-presidency impeachment. “Hang on”, you might say; “doesn’t impeachment, if successfully carried, involve the loss of office? In which case it would be pointless for someone who’s already gone?”. Yes, it does – but that’s not all it does, which is what…

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Democratic voters are more fired up about WH2020 than Republicans ones which could be bad news for Trump

Democratic voters are more fired up about WH2020 than Republicans ones which could be bad news for Trump

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By far the biggest global political betting event next year will be the White House Race and all the series of state primaries leading up to it. We have, of course, already started the TV debates for the Democratic nomination and a further round is scheduled for the end of the month. Until now all the PB focus has been on the Democratic nomination race and we’ve barely looked at the bigger picture – will Trump get a second term?…

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