Browsed by
Author: MikeSmithson

Marf on a great PB gathering at Dirty Dicks and the Saturday night rolling polling blog

Marf on a great PB gathering at Dirty Dicks and the Saturday night rolling polling blog

Comments 0 Comment

Thanks Marf for capturing the spirit of last night’s PB gathering at Dirty Dicks in the City of London. This was the best attended PB event that we’ve ever had and it was great to compare notes and betting strategies with fellow PBers. The pub was absolutely packed with Friday night drinkers that our little corner felt very over-crowded at first but it worked well and I, for one, had a great time. We had people with five different party…

Read More Read More

Latest betting prices – GE2015 and possible UKIP defections

Latest betting prices – GE2015 and possible UKIP defections

Comments 0 Comment

Only change on Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR GE spreads. LDs up one seat pic.twitter.com/1P3z6gIpFO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 22, 2014 William Hill betting http://t.co/orbZ1ewJDz UKIP 5/1 to be part of a coalition – 18 months ago they were 33/1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 22, 2014 William Hill http://t.co/orbZ1ewJDz now make CON 4/6 to win back Rochester. Yesterday morning they were 2/1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 22, 2014

CON GE15 prices moves up because Rochester wasn’t as bad as many in the blue team feared

CON GE15 prices moves up because Rochester wasn’t as bad as many in the blue team feared

Comments 0 Comment

Tories helped by UKIP/Farage’s poor expectation management Mood on spread markets is that Rochester good for CON now just 3 seats behind. Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR pic.twitter.com/9v0QsDcpF1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 21, 2014 This morning’s movement means that the CON price has advanced by 7 seats since SPIN opened its market 11 days ago. The money’s now going on CON to retake the seat next May William Hill http://t.co/orbZ1ewJDz now make CON odds on 5/6 favourite to win Rochester back…

Read More Read More

Mark Reckless wins Rochester for UKIP with a majority of 7.2%

Mark Reckless wins Rochester for UKIP with a majority of 7.2%

Comments 0 Comment

Reckless Rochester numbers pic.twitter.com/JST7qvcIM7 — Robin Brant (@robindbrant) November 21, 2014 But can he be confident of holding on next May and will it encourage more defectors? In the end the Rochester result was a lot closer than any of the final polls had suggested but the first stage Mark Reckless’s massive gamble has paid off – he’s back again as MP for Rochester. The winning margin was 7.2% which compared with the gaps of 12% and more that we…

Read More Read More

It’s looking like a UKIP victory but by a tighter margin than any of the polls

It’s looking like a UKIP victory but by a tighter margin than any of the polls

Comments 0 Comment

Ukip leader Nigel Farage confident after polls close in Rochester and Strood by-election http://t.co/xcFUuP1xrG pic.twitter.com/tt7wnpqOrW — ITV News (@itvnews) November 20, 2014 Ukip on around 43%, Tories 35%, Labour 17% at #rochesterbyelection, it's said – http://t.co/kXX2nAdFQn — AndrewSparrow (@AndrewSparrow) November 21, 2014 The 4 Rochester & Strood polls. pic.twitter.com/NeCDkQrtY1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 21, 2014

Anybody got any by-election news from Rochester and Strood?

Anybody got any by-election news from Rochester and Strood?

Comments 0 Comment

Mark Reckless with his “wonderful wife” … voting earlier with my wonderful wife. Today is day for people of Rochester and Strood who are my boss pic.twitter.com/OThUwF0po7 — Mark Reckless (@MarkReckless) November 20, 2014 Kelly Tolhurst looking a bit strained Grabbed a quick coffee from Boomers in Chatham Dockside before heading out again for #VoteKelly TODAY campaigning pic.twitter.com/c5odwmMERc — Kelly Tolhurst (@KellyTolhurst) November 20, 2014 It would be great to hear from you on the thread below. What’s turnout like?…

Read More Read More

Under single constituency first past the post system national aggregate vote totals don’t mean that much

Under single constituency first past the post system national aggregate vote totals don’t mean that much

Comments 0 Comment

Why the legitimacy of what could appear a perverse general election outcome cannot be questioned There’s lots of talk at the moment about the electoral “system being bust” and “no longer fit for purpose”. What is being pointed to are possible disparities between national aggregate vote shares and the total of MPs each party gets. Clearly in what is now a four party structure it is very likely that many seats will be won with the victor securing fewer than…

Read More Read More