If this Ipsos-MORI polling is right then the Westminster village, and me, got the Autumn Statement wrong
Mike Smithson Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble since 2004 Follow @MSmithsonPB
What we can learn from Nelson Mandela
QUOTESERNESTHEMINGWAY Henry G Manson gives his views The passing of Nelson Mandela gives cause to reflect on his life, struggles and achievements. His gigantic life is something so many have drawn from, particularly following his release from imprisonment 23 years ago. It’s the character of the man is what gave him his worldwide authority. It’s should give cause to pause for a moment and consider how we might better serve our country and each other through the political lessons Mandela…
Labour cannot go into GE2015 with Balls still shadow chancellor
Chris Leslie – Shadow Treasury Secretary pic.twitter.com/r5BkbT7KXm — PolPics (@PolPics) December 5, 2013 Could shadow treasury sec Chris Leslie be the answer? For me the striking feature of today’s autumn statement was how poorly Ed Balls performed. Yes he had to face a massive barrage of noise from the other side but his really poor communication skills were shown up. He’s just far too agressive and talks to fast. I know he’s got a stammer but he’s appalling diction –…
If Osborne gets this right today could be the game-changer that gives the Tories hope again
pic.twitter.com/JgiJ5y5kP1 — PolPics (@PolPics) December 5, 2013 Or it could just go plop and not make an impact We all remember that speech by Osborne at the October 2007 Tory conference that arguably changed the whole narrative and stopped Gordon Brown from going ahead with an autumn general election. In it Osborne, then shadow chancellor, called for a big easing of the inheritance tax rules which seemed to chime with the voters. It forced the then LAB chancellor, Alistair Darling,…
An amazing statistic from the Survation Dudley North poll
None of the 2010 LD voters in the Survation Dudley N poll said they'd be backing party at GE2015. They're now "don't know" or LAB backers — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2013 Admittedly the sub-set of 2010 LDs, at just 11 responses, was very small but you’d expect one or two to still be loyal to the yellows. In fact the data records zero. That’s something I’ve never seen before for any party. It does support the view that…
The drip feed of the marginals polling could lead to more of the CON intake of 2010 deciding to call it a day
How many will follow the Laura Sandys route? We’ll have to wait until the early hours of May 8th 2015 before we can start to say for sure whether the Ashcroft marginals polling or the Alan Bown funded Survation polls are in anyway accurate but they could have a more immediate impact – on the decisions of many in the Conservative “class of 2010“ on whether to continue in politics. For a consequence of the marginals and single constituency polling…
Another polling blow for the Tories in phase 2 of the CON marginals polling funded by a UKIP donor
70% of UKIP Voters DID NOT vote CON at GE2010 After last week’s Thanet South poll there’s a second wave just out funded by UKIP donor Alan Bown and carried out by Survation. The picture that’s emerging is very similar to what the Ashcroft marginals poll found in September – that the Tories are faring worse in the key battlegrounds than in the country as a whole. The focus in the latest phase was on two of the key marginals…
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URL change: To access the latest posts please click www.politicalbetting.com For three and a half years I have highlighted the YouGov “most to blame for the cuts” tracker as, perhaps, a good non-voting intention tracker. On the face of it you’d think that if the red team was continuing to get the blame with less than a year and a half to go then it would start to appear in the voting numbers. Yet that doesn’t seem to be happening….