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Author: MikeSmithson

2013: The year when according to political punters, at least, nothing changed very much

2013: The year when according to political punters, at least, nothing changed very much

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December 2012 compared with December 2013 The chart says it all. There has been almost no change in prices on the Betfair exchange on the outcome of GE2015. The prices on a CON and LAB majority have edged down a bit with no overall majority moving up a notch. The big differences between now than then have been the resilience UKIP in the polls and the fact that the election is now little more than 16 months away. Labour’s polling…

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The factors that drive much of the pro-LAB bias in general elections could work for the Tories in the May Euros

The factors that drive much of the pro-LAB bias in general elections could work for the Tories in the May Euros

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Don’t write off the Tories to win most votes We all know that the electoral system for Westminster seats seems to produce an outcome that is more favourable to LAB than the other parties. A big part of the reason for this is illustrated in the chart above. Labour has far fewer wasted votes. Thus looking at the first two columns – a much smaller proportion of LAB votes were “wasted” in seats where the party finished 3rd. A second…

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At last news a survey on EU2014 – next May’s national contest that nobody seems to want to poll

At last news a survey on EU2014 – next May’s national contest that nobody seems to want to poll

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UKIP, odds on favourites to win trail LAB by 7% On May 22nd next year the whole of the UK will be voting in the elections for the European Parliament yet there’s been very little media coverage and almost no polling. Whilst we have eight or nine Westminster VI polls a week you had until tonight to go back until early October to find the last EP2014 survey. This is surprising because EP2014 represents a massive opportunity for the new…

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The politics of interest rates: New YouGov poll finds more saying a rise would make them better off than worse off

The politics of interest rates: New YouGov poll finds more saying a rise would make them better off than worse off

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Times leads on YouGov poll on interest rates pic.twitter.com/Y5NsbeCb3a — PolPics (@PolPics) December 26, 2013 But is the headline just wishful thinking from the Times With the possiblility of interest rates increasing in 2014 the Times is leading on polling that suggests that more pople would benefit than would lose out. This certainly runs contrary to the general media narrative that low interests rates are a “good thing”. Maybe this is because those who work in the media are more…

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The year end ICM and YouGov polls from 2010 – 2014

The year end ICM and YouGov polls from 2010 – 2014

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Just to note that tomorrow there will not be the usual PB Christmas Day cross-word from StJohn. For various reasons he’s not been able to do one this year. If anybody has any other ideas for tomorrow on the site then let me know or just post below. I’m at home with my wife Jacky, my daughters, son-in-law, and two of my grandchildren. I don’t intend to post very much. Regard this as an open thread and have an enjoyable…

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Why I think that UKIP is being understated in many polls

Why I think that UKIP is being understated in many polls

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How the Populus party ID weightings worked against #UKIP in today's Populus poll When the views of 208 became 21 pic.twitter.com/yxpoNWhQlf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 20, 2013 Using a 2010 model might not be right for 2014 The publication last week of the latest round of the Bown-funded constituency polling set off a debate about methodology with efforts to attack what Survation had done. The main objections were that the firm wasn’t using what have become standard approaches to ensure…

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My best political bet of 2013 – the 14-1 “certainty”

My best political bet of 2013 – the 14-1 “certainty”

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Money piles on independent Danny Supple in the Hills win w/o top 4 market. In from 14/1 to 4/1 following Survation. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2013 Making money reading the poll detail My definition of a great bet is one where my reading is that the outcome is a near certainty and the odds are longer than evens. This doesn’t happen often but in the weekend before the Eastleigh by election in February such an opportunity opened…

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