Introducing the “33rd most influential person in the over 50s on Twitter”
It’s in the Telegraph – it must be true! See the top 60 list here from the Telegraph
If LAB find they need to go into coalition then it’s highly likely that they’ll have come 2nd on votes
Electoral Calculus on CON 36/LAB 34/LD 12/UKIP 10 http://t.co/mTRqtqLs5N pic.twitter.com/pinH57OuDx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2014 How Ed can be the seat winner but vote loser Lots of talk at the moment about another hung parliament fueled partly by the hitherto unlikely “revelation” from Ed Balls that he’s respected all along the LD decision in May 2010 to go into coalition with the Tories. One thing that hasn’t been focused on is what sort of result would lead to…
The January ICM poll sees LAB lead down to 3 and the LDs the main gainer
Even though it’s only margin of error it will cheer the Tories The only real changes in tonight’s January ICM poll for the Guardian are LAB down 2 with the LDs up – both moves within the margin of error. After a poor polling start to the year the Tories will be pleased that ICM has such a close margin which will give them a boost. Exactly a year ago the first ICM of 2013 had CON 33/LAB 38/LD 15….
The voting experience from GE2010 that perhaps explains why LAB is doing better in the marginals
LAB voters more likely to turn out where it matters We’ve said it many times before but it is worth saying again. To maximise a party’s votes:seats ratio the best thing you can do is perform differently in different sorts of seats. Just look at the LAB vote GE2010 vote share changes in the chart above. There’s a variation of nearly 6% between the seats where it best performed compared with the worst. The categories are worked out by the…
Introducing the PB weekly average of YouGov daily polls
The general election is sixteen months away and the polls are going to be increasingly important. The biggest in terms of volume of output is, of course, YouGov which carries out five surveys each week – four for the Sun and one for the Sunday Times. Sometimes these get reported at other times they don’t. I thought it quite a good idea to continue highlighting interesting single polls but also to record a weekly average so we’ll be a able…
Clegg’s general election pitch: “The biggest threat to economic recovery is..single party government”
Nick Clegg on Andrew Marr show http://t.co/DZNREnCGSu — PolPics (@PolPics) January 12, 2014 Clegg makes the case for a further coalition It was Nick Clegg’s turn this morning to tour the radio and TV studios and his most interesting line was this from 5Live:- “Actually, if you look at some of the polls, there’s polls suggesting more people want another coalition of one description or another than they want a single party government. And by the way, I think they’re…
Wythenshawe and Sale E could be a dry run for Toby Young’s tactical voting campaign
http://t.co/Vru6eBegqP http://t.co/ZAEV366pJS — PolPics (@PolPics) January 11, 2014 @AndrewCooper__ @LordAshcroft I hope you'll both join me in urging all good Tories in Wyenshawe and Sale to vote UKIP #CountryB4Party — Toby Young (@toadmeister) January 11, 2014 An interesting development in the past week has been a move by Tony Young to encourage CON>UKIP and UKIP>CON tactical voting in key marginal seats. Such schemes have been seen before between the reds and yellows but this is the first I’ve seen from…
The first Populus poll of 2014 sees LAB lead up 5 percent
Overall LAB has had pretty steady start to 2014 This morning we’ve got the first Populus online survey of the year which has LAB back on 40% with CON down 2% to 33%. All just about within the margin of error. This follows the first week of YouGov daily polls which has had the Tories solidly on 32% with LAB ranging from 37% to 40%. The LDs have been on 9/10% while UKIP has been in the 12-14% range. All…