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Author: MikeSmithson

MEMO to CON MPs who think that an EU referendum is the magic bullet that’ll help them save seats: It isn’t

MEMO to CON MPs who think that an EU referendum is the magic bullet that’ll help them save seats: It isn’t

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Check this YouGov polling – Europe has little salience Quite simply there are too few potential converts Judging by the intensity of many backbench CON MPs over the EU referendum issue you’d have thought that they firmly believe if only they could get this sorted it would be the magic bullet that would ensure their re-election at GE2015. The blunt fact is that it isn’t. For the vast bulk of voters Europe, even those saying UKIP as the chart shows,…

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The LDs and LAB the gainers in today’s FOUR new voting intention polls

The LDs and LAB the gainers in today’s FOUR new voting intention polls

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It feels like general election time! I can’t remember a day since the 2010 general election when we’ve had four new Westminster voting intention polls. They are featured in the interactive chart above. Most important is the monthly Ipsos-MORI phone poll which only in October had the Tories and LAB level pegging on 35%. Well it’s very different today with the red team having a 9% lead and the LDs seeing their share jump 4. The big driver of the…

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Why those wanting an EU referendum shouldn’t pin their hopes on Ed Miliband

Why those wanting an EU referendum shouldn’t pin their hopes on Ed Miliband

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@LordAshcroft There's no benefit to LAB in helping close down the issue of Europe which has been so divisive for the Tories. No referendum. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 16, 2014 @MSmithsonPB ..wouldn't bet on that… — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) January 16, 2014 Last night I got into a little Twitter discussion with Lord Ashcroft over Labour and an EU referendum. He was articulating what is a widespread Tory view that EdM will be forced ahead of the election to…

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Half of those who told YouGov that they’ll vote UKIP in the May Euros supported the Tories at GE210

Half of those who told YouGov that they’ll vote UKIP in the May Euros supported the Tories at GE210

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UKIP only 2% behind LAB amongst those certain to vote UKIP WAS included in YouGov’s opening prompt UKIP WAS included in the opening prompt for YouGov's EP2014 poll & firm indicates possible change for Westminster http://t.co/J61mBrOrCf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 16, 2014

The European Parliament elections: The nonsense voting system that the coalition should have scrapped

The European Parliament elections: The nonsense voting system that the coalition should have scrapped

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EU elections ballot paper http://t.co/RLIyaIkww4 — PolPics (@PolPics) January 16, 2014 YouGov/Sun EP2014 poll has LAB 32% UKIP 26% CON 23% LD 9% So CON down to 3rd & LDs in danger of losing all MEPs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 16, 2014 The weird system made for the party machines Today we have, see above, the first YouGov poll for the big UK election this year that takes place on May 22nd when 73 UK MEPs will be elected to the European Parliament….

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If this Ipsos-MORI polling is right then party leaders are becoming less important

If this Ipsos-MORI polling is right then party leaders are becoming less important

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Never have all been rated so badly There’s some interesting polling just been released by Ipsos-MORI on party leadership which has the not so remarkable conclusion that:- “The average combined satisfaction rating of the leaders of the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties is lower today than Ipsos MORI has ever seen in recent history, at an equivalent time before a general election. The average combined net satisfaction score (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied) of the three leaders in December…

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The polling differential in the marginals that would mean that we should be adding 5 to the LAB lead

The polling differential in the marginals that would mean that we should be adding 5 to the LAB lead

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Are the blues really doing so much worse in the battlegrounds? Back in September Lord Ashcrooft published his 12,083 sample phone polls showing that LAB was doing substantiality better in the key battlegrounds than in the country as a whole. The idea that something different was happening in the marginals was given greater credence last month when Survation, in its series of constituency polls for UKIP donor, Alan Bown, also had Labour doing better. The broad scale of the swing…

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