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Author: MikeSmithson

By 40% to 39% men say Rennard should be allowed to remain in LDs. By 43% to 27% women say he shouldn’t

By 40% to 39% men say Rennard should be allowed to remain in LDs. By 43% to 27% women say he shouldn’t

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What we have is a gender and a generational divide There’s a YouGov poll in the Times this morning in which there’s the first detailed questioning on whether Lord Rennard he should be allowed to stay with the Lib Dems or leave following the allegations of sexual harassment According to the paper’s report 40% said he should stay and 39% said he should leave. Among women, the split was 43% leave with only 27% saying he should stay. Amongst Lib…

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How many of the CON 2010 entry will call it day?

How many of the CON 2010 entry will call it day?

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Jessica Lee MP steps down: 11 per cent of Tory women elected in 2010 have decided to leave Parliament http://t.co/ksnr5xNqYQ — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) January 21, 2014 This looks problematic for the Tories The percentages in the CONHome article look quite stark particularly as this comes a week when women in politics have been under the spotlight. The fact that it refers just four puts it into a slightly different context. Clearly the reality of becoming an MP has not…

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Clegg will survive the Rennard crisis but if he doesn’t watch out for Norman Lamb, the LD John Major

Clegg will survive the Rennard crisis but if he doesn’t watch out for Norman Lamb, the LD John Major

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In a crisis go for the grey haired man I’ve been getting a number of requests for my view on whether Clegg will survive the Rennard crisis and what my thoughts are on a likely successor. Certainly what appears to be open warfare between LD peers and the leadership together with the threatened legal action by Rennard make this a tricky period for Clegg. There might be factions who’ve never been supporters who could use the issue to try to…

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Wythenshawe looks as though it will take place in mid-February

Wythenshawe looks as though it will take place in mid-February

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Betting on who’ll win outright See where the money has been going in the Wythenshawe betting. Best LAB price now 1/9 pic.twitter.com/7GU7JKsCM9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2014 Betting on the runner-up Ukip now 2/5 favourite to come 2nd in Wythenshawe. See where money has been going pic.twitter.com/TSmOjIj8tK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2014 With the Wythenshawe by-election expected to take place in mid-February all the attention is now on who’ll get selected for Labour and UKIP. Clearly,…

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Cameron is the only leader to be viewed more favourably than his party

Cameron is the only leader to be viewed more favourably than his party

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Nigel, Nick and Ed are all seen less favourably than theirs A very big part of US polling that we see rarely in the UK are favourability ratings. Questioning such as “Do you have a favourable/unfavourable view of Obama/Democrats/Congress/ etc” have been part and parcel of US polling data for years. Yet surprisingly we rarely see such numbers in the UK. This weekend the ComRes online poll did ask these questions of the four party leaders and their parties and…

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Not a bad set of weekend polls for Labour but doubts fuelled by the leader ratings remain

Not a bad set of weekend polls for Labour but doubts fuelled by the leader ratings remain

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But YouGov’s 8% for the LDs signals problems over Rennard Very irritatingly Opinium don’t publish their full dataset until after the weekend so we have yet to see the firm’s fortnightly leader approval ratings and a Euro election poll that they carried out. Almost all the other firms, bar ICM, now have near instantaneous publication of the detailed data as soon as headline numbers are released. Opinium should get their act together. They are the only firm to carry out…

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UKIP top the ComRes “most favoured party” list and move up to 19% on voting intention

UKIP top the ComRes “most favoured party” list and move up to 19% on voting intention

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ComRes online for Indy on Sunday/S Mirror sees CON close gap by 2 CON 30% +1 LAB 35% -1 LD 8%= UKIP 19% +1 Very good for UKIP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2014 ComRes favourability ratings see UKIP the most favoured party The ComRes leader and party favourability ratings 1/2 http://t.co/WCtMUhHkuh — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2014 The ComRes leader and party favourability ratings 2/2 http://t.co/Is8KxEWm2L — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2014 Still to come tonight Opinium and YouGov. Mike Smithson…

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