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Author: MikeSmithson

The international hot potato that is internet betting

The international hot potato that is internet betting

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The politics of banning online gambling Hardly a week goes by without online gambling being in the news somehow. This burgeoning industry rakes in over $20 billion worldwide every year according to the latest H2 Gambling estimates. Therefore, it isn’t surprising that governments everywhere are eyeing the multi-million pot with great interest, though the reasons behind this interest aren’t always the same. Politics has always played an important hand in the fate of online gambling. Despite the ever changing regulatory…

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Suddenly independence looks within Salmond’s grasp in new ICM poll

Suddenly independence looks within Salmond’s grasp in new ICM poll

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Time to start betting on YES There’s a new IndyRef poll in Scotland on Sunday from ICM – the pollster that got the 2011 AV referendum most right predicting the final result to within a small fraction of a percent. The figures saw YES up 5% and NO down 5% compared with the last in September. The initial split in the poll was 54-46 but that closed to 53-47 when those sampled were pressed further for a view. Very interestingly…

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Ed Balls makes the 50 percent tax-rate the GE2015 dividing line

Ed Balls makes the 50 percent tax-rate the GE2015 dividing line

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Over to you Mr. Osborne The big announcement in this morning speech from Ed Balls was that a Labour government would reintroduce the 50% tax rate which was reduced to 45% in George Osborne’s March 2012 budget. This is probably the most significant policy move yet from Labour in the build up to GE2015 – now little more then 15 months away. At the time of the change to 45% Osborne’s move didn’t poll very well and there’s little indication…

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The Tory survival plan is based on the Lib Dems staying strong in CON-LAB battlegrounds but collapsing in CON-LD ones

The Tory survival plan is based on the Lib Dems staying strong in CON-LAB battlegrounds but collapsing in CON-LD ones

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The evidence suggests that it’s working the other way round It’s been repeated often enough on PB that an essential part of Labour’s polling position is based on the very large proportion of 2010 LD voters who’ve now switched to Labour. If this hadn’t happened or starts to slip away then EdM’s dreams of becoming PM are in trouble. So far, at least, the evidence is that such a move that is even more pronounced in the key LAB-CON marginals…

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LAB hold the Cowdenbeath Holyrood by-election on a 11.25 percent swing from the SNP

LAB hold the Cowdenbeath Holyrood by-election on a 11.25 percent swing from the SNP

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How Salmond was being reported a week before the Cowdenbeath by-election pic.twitter.com/2BnXnBEcAq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2014 LAB 55.8% (+9.3) SNP 28.4% (-13.2) CON 9.4% (+2.5) UKIP 3.0% L Dem 2.1% (-1.8) Victims 0.9% SDA 0.3% The campaign approach that could scupper YES Given that we are now only eight months away from the referendum in Scotland that will determine whether it stays in the UK or not the outcome of every election north of the border is being…

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Stephen Dunn looks at the voters who’ll decide GE2015 – those who live in the marginals

Stephen Dunn looks at the voters who’ll decide GE2015 – those who live in the marginals

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It’s the Demography, Stupid. The next General Election is a year and a half away, and it’s going to be interesting (as all elections are for gamblers). Labour currently have a consistent polling share which suggests a Labour majority, if they maintain it. But for predictive purposes, it’s interesting to look in some detail at who will actually decide the next election – Everyone, of course, but realistically the voters in the most marginal seats. Who are they, where are…

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Portsmouth South would make an interesting by-election but Hancock, surely, will hang on in there

Portsmouth South would make an interesting by-election but Hancock, surely, will hang on in there

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Lots of talk tonight about Portsmouth South. This is what happened at GE2010 pic.twitter.com/2J7dmAzNbF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 22, 2014 @robfordmancs LD organisation in Portsmouth S even stronger than Eastleigh. This is about data & skilled foot soldiers — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 22, 2014 @MSmithsonPB Interesting – thanks Mike. Could be a crucial test of the power of local LD machines to hold back the tide, then. — Rob Ford (England) (@robfordmancs) January 22, 2014 @MSmithsonPB Yes, would…

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The piece in the GE2015 jigsaw that even Lynton Crosby is unable to fix: LAB gets more seats than CON for the same vote share

The piece in the GE2015 jigsaw that even Lynton Crosby is unable to fix: LAB gets more seats than CON for the same vote share

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What happens when you put CON 35% and LAB 35% into the Electoral Calculus seat calculator http://t.co/qP4NIfGVIM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 21, 2014 The challenge for the Tories is even bigger than the projection Everybody who follows UK politics knows that Labour can secure more seats on a given national vote share than the Tories or other parties. The above shows what happens on Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus seat porjector when vote shares of CON 35/LAB 35/LD 12/UKIP 10…

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