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Author: MikeSmithson

There’s a strong chance that there could be a Tory leadership contest within the next year and a quarter

There’s a strong chance that there could be a Tory leadership contest within the next year and a quarter

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It could be earlier if there’s a post EURO2014 nervous breakdown The publication of the latest CONHome survey on preferred next party leader is a timely reminder that we could be just 15 months away from a vacancy occurring. One thing that we know about the Conservative party is that it is pretty unsentimental when it comes to failing/failed leaders. If Dave doesn’t manage to bring home the goods on May 7th 2015 then it’s hard to see him lasting…

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Falling LAB poll shares in January sees Electoral Calculus cut the party’s projected majority by 6 seats

Falling LAB poll shares in January sees Electoral Calculus cut the party’s projected majority by 6 seats

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Latest Electoral Calculus projection for GE2015 http://t.co/4VTCVNQT7t pic.twitter.com/EY46vABkQD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2014 This is the commentary by Martin Baxters who has been running Electoral Calculus for two decades: “Most pollsters measured a small decrease in Labour’s lead over the Conservatives in January. But they also showed an increase in both the smaller parties’ vote, at the expense of themajor parties. However the pollsters are relatively divided about UKIP. One group (Opinium, ComRes and Survation) see a high…

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All the weekend polls: Round up

All the weekend polls: Round up

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Westminster voting intentions – LAB pretty solid Killer number for CON in today's YouGov is that 37% 2010 LD voters now say LAB That has to come down drastically for CON to have a chance — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2014 TNS reports YES moving forward for Scottish IndyRef

First of the weekend’s polls sees LAB edge up in ICM/Sunday Telegraph Wisdom Index

First of the weekend’s polls sees LAB edge up in ICM/Sunday Telegraph Wisdom Index

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Today's ICM/S Telegraph Wisdom Index sees LAB extend lead from 1.1% in Sept 2013 to 2.3% in poll in which respondents estimate GE shares — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1, 2014 Latest ICM Wisdom Index in which respondees are asked to predict party shares for GE2015 has CON 31.1 LAB 33.4 LD 15.8 UKIP 11.7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1, 2014 By 49% to 30% ICM finds backing for LAB plan to increase tax on high earners — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1,…

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Scottish independence: The electoral mathematics would look a lot less daunting for the Tories

Scottish independence: The electoral mathematics would look a lot less daunting for the Tories

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Time to send George/Dave on lots of trips north? At GE2010 Labour won 41 of the 59 Scottish seats while the Tories came away with one. So if Scotland gets stripped out of the equation then achieving an overall majority because a much easier task for the blues. As a rough and ready way of calculating the impact on the current commons seat projection simply deduct 20 from the LAB majority figure. Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the…

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Why even this 4 percent lead on votes projection might not be enough for the Tories to win most seats

Why even this 4 percent lead on votes projection might not be enough for the Tories to win most seats

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http://t.co/be72pAqDpA pic.twitter.com/tHqRYZhs3t — PolPics (@PolPics) January 31, 2014 My 4/1 bet that LAB wins most seats but CON gets most votes Yesterday I placed a bet at 4/1 with PaddyPower that LAB will win most seats at GE2015 but will trail the Tories on national vote share. What makes this a value bet is because the vote share window when this could happen is much larger than the commons seat calculators suggest. Look at the uniform national projection above from…

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Let this week be a lesson for us all: Don’t get too excited about a single survey

Let this week be a lesson for us all: Don’t get too excited about a single survey

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YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead jumps to 10 points: CON 32, LAB 42, LD 8, UKIP 12 — Sun Politics (@Sun_Politics) January 30, 2014 That was almost the polling week that was We’ve now got to Friday in what has been a dramatic polling week and the chart above shows what’s happened to the five times a week YouGov “daily polls”. After three surveys which really looked as though Labour’s lead had narrowed we’ve now got Miliband’s party in…

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