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Author: MikeSmithson

Populus change their much criticised party ID weightings which should see much bigger UKIP shares

Populus change their much criticised party ID weightings which should see much bigger UKIP shares

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New Populus poll with new methodology that gives big boost to UKIP Lab 36 Cons 33 LD 9 UKIP 15; — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 7, 2014 @PopulusPolls say their new methodology will boost UKIP and see declines for LAB & LDs. Tories should stay the same. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 7, 2014 @PopulusPolls has been sharply criticised about its former party ID weighting model. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 7, 2014 The new weightings – see how they shift…

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If UKIP is to win Westminster seats it needs much more direct voter contact than in Wythenshawe

If UKIP is to win Westminster seats it needs much more direct voter contact than in Wythenshawe

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How the parties are campaigning from the @LordAshcroft Wythenshawe poll pic.twitter.com/oFC8TtPY3W — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 7, 2014 Getting data is absolutely essential Once again Lord Ashcroft has done what the mainstream media seems to have all but abandoned – commissioned an expensive phone poll on an upcoming political event and come up with data that adds to our understanding of the current political scene. No one is particularly surprised by the voting numbers in his Wythenshawe poll – LAB…

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Ipsos-MORI sees gap closing by 2 and economic optimism surging

Ipsos-MORI sees gap closing by 2 and economic optimism surging

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Ipsos-MORI February 2014 pic.twitter.com/ubIv7VrwO7 — PolPics (@PolPics) February 6, 2014 Ipsos-MORI chart showing sharp rise in economic optimism pic.twitter.com/yoYYPtNYEf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2014 Table showing latest Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings for the 4 leaders pic.twitter.com/BMf8Hrr9NL — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2014

How votes have been churning between the parties since 2010

How votes have been churning between the parties since 2010

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From the latest Ashcroft mega-poll We don’t often view polling data in this way partly because the sample sizes in the regular surveys are not really large enough to draw conclusions from sub-samples. Lord Ashcroft gets round this by using very large samples with the result that for poll watchers like me his detailed data can provide good insights and pointers. Clearly the top two, UKIP and LAB, have seen the most new support coming to them and are probably…

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Iain Dale predicts that the LDs will win 30-35 seats at GE2015. Seat by seat these are his forecasts.

Iain Dale predicts that the LDs will win 30-35 seats at GE2015. Seat by seat these are his forecasts.

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It is a brave man who fifteen months before a general election seeks to predict the outcome in all the 57 seats that the Lib Dems will be defending but that is what Ian Dale has done this morning. It provoked quite a discussion on Twitter and I thought that PBers might like to cast their eyes over it and give their verdicts. To my mind the element that Iain has not factored in is the organisational state of the local LD…

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An emerging trend? LAB voters are now more likely to say they are certain to vote

An emerging trend? LAB voters are now more likely to say they are certain to vote

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The trend over the past few years New analysis from @IpsosMORI shows CON voters now less certain to vote than LAB ones. http://t.co/WbBIclp73V Chart pic.twitter.com/wcbQPw6nTi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2014 How higher certainty levels boosted LAB in this poll Ipsos-MORI Jan 2014 Political Monitor pic.twitter.com/PYmcnHH54B — PolPics (@PolPics) February 5, 2014 There’s an interesting article by Ipsos-MORI’s Roger Mortimer on the way that LAB voters are increaingly saying that they are more certain to vote than CON ones. This…

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At GE2010 the Tories had a lead amongst teachers. Now the Tories are 41 pc behind

At GE2010 the Tories had a lead amongst teachers. Now the Tories are 41 pc behind

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How LAB moved from a 1% deficit to a 41% lead Given the very public row that’s been going on over Mr Michael Gove I’ve dug out some comparative data on the voting intentions of teachers and the big changes in the way this key segment of the electorate will vote. In MARCH 2010 YouGov found teachers splitting CON 33: LAB 32: LD 27: UKIP 3. In the latest polling of the same segment published last month it is CON…

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Another poll finds the #IndyRef gap closing in Scotland but whoever the client was has so far sat on it

Another poll finds the #IndyRef gap closing in Scotland but whoever the client was has so far sat on it

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Mystery YouGov #indyref poll finds gap closing as well but so far hasn't been published http://t.co/In2xHlmZ7s pic.twitter.com/aNmDN7vpse — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2014   PB reveals the mystery YouGov referendum survey The big Scottish #IndyRef story over the past week had been the closing of the gap between those wanting independence and those opposed. First was the ICM poll for Scotland on Sunday which was followed by TNS BMRB. Now another poll has emerged which also shows the same…

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