Browsed by
Author: MikeSmithson

LAB easily holds Wythenshawe. UKIP beat Tories to second place on a share of 17.8pc

LAB easily holds Wythenshawe. UKIP beat Tories to second place on a share of 17.8pc

Comments 0 Comment

LAB vote in #Wythenshawe 55% – up from the 44% of GE2010 UKIP 17.8% up from 3% at GE2010 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 14, 2014 #Wythenshawe is UKIP's poorest by-election result since Croydon North in November 2012 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 14, 2014 In terms of % vote loss #Wythenshawe is the Lib Dems worst by-election result since 1945 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 14, 2014 The harsh lesson for UKIP in #Wythenshawe is that under first past the…

Read More Read More

The Westminster – Edinburgh confrontation over the currency might be just what the YES campaign wants

The Westminster – Edinburgh confrontation over the currency might be just what the YES campaign wants

Comments 0 Comment

Those who say that an independent Scotland will share the £ need to know: that is not going to happen #indyref — George Osborne (@George_Osborne) February 13, 2014 Sturgeon accuses Osborne of "campaign rhetoric" – http://t.co/tLPi7yYnNs – but also reiterates SNP's "not pay debt" threat #indyref — AndrewSparrow (@AndrewSparrow) February 13, 2014 The more London appears uunreasonable the more it could be strengthening the case for independence

Wythenshawe: To maintain momentum today UKIP needs a good second place with a vote share well above 20 percent

Wythenshawe: To maintain momentum today UKIP needs a good second place with a vote share well above 20 percent

Comments 0 Comment

SportingIndex http://t.co/XReNcJQk6i open Wythenshawe spread betting market pic.twitter.com/bdfy19szyw — PolPics (@PolPics) February 11, 2014 Being beaten by the Tories would be a severe blow Unlike Labour, RESPECT and the Lib Dems Nigel Farage’s UKIP has not won a Westminster by-election during this parliament. It has been regularly, as the chart shows, getting second places and in three of the last five by-elections it has chalked up vote shares of more than 20%. But getting that elusive seat at Westminster is proving…

Read More Read More

Rob Ford and Matthew Goodwin have news of UKIP’s private polling in Wythenshawe

Rob Ford and Matthew Goodwin have news of UKIP’s private polling in Wythenshawe

Comments 0 Comment

Good piece on Wythenshawe by-election via @GoodwinMJ with interesting news on UKIP private polling pic.twitter.com/YmTOHV73AG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 12, 2014 The Telegraph UKIP Watch blog spot by academics Rob Ford and Matthew Goodwin is becoming a must read given the importance of Farage’s party. Today they focus on tomorrow’s Wythenshawe by-election and why the purples have had to scale down expectations. I found these aspects very interesting:- “.. A few weeks ago the party undertook some private polling…

Read More Read More

Without Scotland the electoral system would appear much less biased towards Labour

Without Scotland the electoral system would appear much less biased towards Labour

Comments 0 Comment

One aspect of Scottish independence is that the removal of MPs from North of the border would make the electoral system appear less biased to Labour and against the other parties. Toggle between Scottish MPs and the % of the Scottish GE2010 results to see the difference it makes. Last time Labour managed to chalk up just under 70% of the Scottish seats on just 42% of the votes. The Scottish Tories had just one seat (1.6% of the total)…

Read More Read More

Latest EU referendum polling suggests that the outcome would be far from a foregone conclusion

Latest EU referendum polling suggests that the outcome would be far from a foregone conclusion

Comments 0 Comment

Four CON voters in 10 currently say they’d vote to stay It is a long time since I’ve looked at EU referendum polling and today’s numbers from YouGov rather surprised me. The gap between EXIT and STAY is getting closer and the party splits are not quite as you’d imagine. Of course there is no referendum on the agenda at the moment and I doubt whether Ed Miliband will promise one in the fifteen months that remain until GE2015. If…

Read More Read More

There’s no way that UKIP should be betting favourite to win most votes at EURO2014 based on current polling

There’s no way that UKIP should be betting favourite to win most votes at EURO2014 based on current polling

Comments 0 Comment

It’s even possible that they’ll struggle to retain 2nd place It’s not often that we see such a mismatch between the betting on an election just three and a half months away and what the pollsters are telling us. That’s what’s happening with the May Euro elections where the UKIP winning most votes prices remains strong even though there’s little polling evidence to support it. There’ve only been three published polls so far this year. The Tories have been in…

Read More Read More