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Author: MikeSmithson

Just over 14 months to go to GE2015 and LAB’s position remains solid in the PB YouGov weekly average

Just over 14 months to go to GE2015 and LAB’s position remains solid in the PB YouGov weekly average

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It’s very hard to forecast a CON majority Since before Christmas I’ve been maintaining an average of the four main party shares from the 5 YouGov polls that appear every week. This enables us to follow trends much better than looking at individual polls from the firm which like all surveys can sometimes be affected by sampling issues. The big message looking at the charts above is how constant the LAB figure has been within a range over the two…

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The leaders’ TV debates: Corporeal looks at the rules

The leaders’ TV debates: Corporeal looks at the rules

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2010 debate pic.twitter.com/CSoY1dvIbZ — PolPics (@PolPics) February 22, 2014 To start with the relatively easy bit: any debates taking place within the election period would be subject to OFCOM’s broadcasting code. Well mostly. In the interests of full accuracy this part of the code (primarily section 6) “does not apply to BBC services funded by the licence fee, which are regulated on these matters by the BBC trust”. Since any debates are likely to be (as last time) a joint effort…

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What are defined as major parties: Ofcom rules make it quite difficult to exclude Nick Clegg from GE2015 TV debates

What are defined as major parties: Ofcom rules make it quite difficult to exclude Nick Clegg from GE2015 TV debates

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The Ofcom list of "major parties" which makes it difficult to exclude Clegg from TV debates pic.twitter.com/ffTUd6GRMw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2014 My guess is that in the coming months we are going to hear a lot about the Ofcom rules which govern broadcasting election coverage in the UK. The current situation is set out in the revised rules that were published in March last year. Those parties defined as “major” have a special status when it comes…

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So Nick versus Nigel is on but it should be on national TV not LBC

So Nick versus Nigel is on but it should be on national TV not LBC

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Ladbrokes open debate betting to be settled on a voodoo poll!! Well done to Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage for agreeing to a debate ahead of the European elections. This will certainly add fizz to the Euro Elections and could boost turnout beyond the 35% of last time. Given Nick Clegg’s position and his party’s numbers in the polls the challenge was a smart move and will help the LDs in its efforts to position itself as the party of…

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Why at 40-1 John Kerry is worth a punt for the 2016 Democratic party nomination

Why at 40-1 John Kerry is worth a punt for the 2016 Democratic party nomination

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John Kerry 2016 pic.twitter.com/hktNEskffM — PolPics (@PolPics) February 19, 2014 He could be ideally placed if his Middle East peace plan succeeds The first thing I did on my return last night from an intensive tour of Israel and Palestine was to place a bet at 50/1 with Ladbrokes on the defeated 2004 presidential candidate, John Kerry, for the Democratic party nomination in the 2016 White House race. Alas the bookie has now cut the price to 25/1 though you…

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UKIP slumps 4 points with ComRes online while LAB extends lead to 9 with Opinium

UKIP slumps 4 points with ComRes online while LAB extends lead to 9 with Opinium

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Farage & UKIP down in ComRes favourability index “Please indicate whether you have a favourable or unfavourable view of each of the following political leaders and parties…” Percentage saying “favourable” (change since last month, or *change since June 2013). David Cameron 31% +4 Ed Miliband 22% +4 Nigel Farage 20% -2 Nick Clegg 13% (0) Labour Party 31% +5 Conservative Party 28% +3 Liberal Democrats 17% +3 UKIP 24% -3 48% tell ComRes that recent floods have made them more…

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The Conservative party then and now – the need to connect with a wider public

The Conservative party then and now – the need to connect with a wider public

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@IsabelHardman @MSmithsonPB This remains the most effective Tory poster in recent years. pic.twitter.com/w5PbBHgRDA — RupertLescott (@RupertLescott) February 14, 2014 Why Dave’s successor is not going to be another old-Etonian Last night there was an interesting post-Wythenshawe discussion kicked off by the Tweet at the top by the Spectator’s Isabel Hardman. Over the past half century just three Tory leaders have led their party to victory with overall majorities at general elections. They were Heath in 1970, Thatcher in 1979, 1983…

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The real challenge for UKIP now is getting their insurgency on track again

The real challenge for UKIP now is getting their insurgency on track again

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It’s tougher because LAB, at least, has worked out how to fight them We’ve heard a lot from Nigel Farage and others Kippers in the past day or so about the difficulty of fighting what they describe as the “ruthless” Labour machine. The very high proportion of votes cast that were done by post is one of the things that they’ve highlighted as though it was somehow unfair. It may or may not be but that is the current electoral…

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