Much greater scrutiny Expect to see more attacks on UKIP like this in the 11 weeks remaining pic.twitter.com/4AyroUsc1S — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2014 The purples still waiting for their Paul Sykes donation Observer http://t.co/utBXQ83odK has most interesting UKIP #EP2014 campaign story Top donor not handed money over yet pic.twitter.com/l6gFN3AbZk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2014
The fury of Boris over Osborne – the story that dominates Mail on Sunday front page pic.twitter.com/WTo5vm3731 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2014 You can get a bet on him at 15/1 Until now I’ve always discounted George Osborne as Cameron’s successor. He generally polls badly and has nothing of the charisma or presence of a Boris or a Dave. Yet the message from the reported flare-up between the Chancellor and the Mayor is that Osborne wants it badly…
The LDs get best Opinium figures since 2011 The fortnightly online poll by Opinium for the Observer is out and sees the LAB lead down to 5% and the party with its smallest share with the firm since 2010. The pollster is the only online firm not to have any political weighting which makes an interesting contrast with the other internet operators. It generally has high UKIP scores and low LDs ones. Back in July it had the yellows on…
ITV News on the "Boris being encouraged to stand for Parliament" story http://t.co/TnYeD7NZxT pic.twitter.com/BhSlVM5rUv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 1, 2014 PaddyPower http://t.co/45A6m2316P betting market on which seat Boris will stand in at GE2015 pic.twitter.com/tA0lPRV2J9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 1, 2014 His term as Mayor ends in May 2016, then there might be a move The timing of the London Mayoral terms was always going to be a problem for Boris assuming that he wants to get back to the…
How it looked for the blues before the rise of UKIP & Osborne’s March 2012 budget At the end of February 2012 the Tories were still getting the benefit from the after-glow of what became known as the “Veto-gasm” – the polling boost that followed from David Cameron’s famous Brussels veto. The positive mood was seen in the betting. In mid-January 2012 the Betfair price on a CON overall majority tightened to a 41% chance while Labour was rated at…
May 11 2010 The Tories hadn’t won & there was need for Brown to step aside I’ve made this point before but Gord had all the cards in his hand on May 7th 2010. The Tories had failed to win a majority and there was no obligation on him to go to the palace and recommend to the Queen that Cameron should be invited to form a government. It is this central constitional fact that the “Dave should have gone…
LAB now clear betting favourite to secure most votes in May Euros Last year UKIP were odds-on pic.twitter.com/yV4aLhn43w — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27, 2014 The Wythenshawe outcome seems to be depressing expectations One thing that I’ve missed in recent weeks has been the growing sentiment on the betting markets that Labour will win most votes and that the task facing UKIP is going to be harder than many predicted. At the start of the year Ladbokes made the purples a…
And there’s a whiff of good news for the LDs at the Euros What I’ve found to be a fascinating piece of polling for the British Future think tank has just been published by Ipsos-MORI. Rather than the conventional voting intention questions interviewees were asked for views of the four main national parties and whether they’d consider voting for them in both general elections and the Euros, general elections only, the Euros only, or whether they’d never consider voting for…