So the Farage – Clegg one to one is fixed for BBC 2 pic.twitter.com/7JJkHHcHPz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2014 This should liven up the Euros It’s good news for all who want a high turnout in the May Euro elections that the Farage versus Clegg national TV debate is actually on. The BBC will be staging it on BBC 2. It will last an hour. For both leaders the mere fact that this is taking place is a…
Last trade on LAB majority on Betfair = 40% Chances of LAB majority edges to 40% on Betfair for first time since June 2013 pic.twitter.com/Ty5AFGW6b8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2014 Last trade on NO majority on Betfair = 39.3% No overall majority price on Betfair drops to 39.3% pic.twitter.com/Reo1fDv05f — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2014 Punters could be buying the “voteless recovery” narrative The charts are from Betfair’s mobile site which annoyingly don’t show dates. The price…
Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the indy sees LAB lead up by 7% The one hope that has been consistent amongst both coalition partners during the past three and a half difficult years has been the political benefits that would accrue once the recovery was established and the electorate could see that it had all been worthwhile. Well over the past few months the economic news has been generally good. Growth is up while unemployment is down. Things start to…
The voting detail from latest ComRes phone poll that will be released tonight pic.twitter.com/jHNx9bg3Zk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 4, 2014 This looks like CON 29/LAB 37/LD 10/UKIP 11 Frustratingly the Indy is releasing its monthly ComRes phone poll in parts and we don’t have the voting intention numbers yet. Given the cost of carrying out phone polls this is understandable but we’d all love to see the actual numbers. What we do have is part of the data which…
2010 LD to LAB switching 2010 CON to UKIP switching Thanks to the new Populus monthly polling aggregate with a sample in February of 14,203 and the weekly averaging of the numbers in the five times a week YouGov polling we can get broader picture of the big dynamics in voting intentions since the 2010 general election. The pie charts above say it all. At the last general election the Lib Dem secured 24% of the overall GB vote while…
LAB lead moves to 9% in tonight's YouGov poll CON 32 LAB 41 LD 8 UKIP 12 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 3, 2014 Tonight's 41% LAB share from YouGov is the highest of the year — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 3, 2014 The Scottish polling headlines Ipsos-MORI trend chart showing gap getting larger in #IndyRef polling pic.twitter.com/boOJ2xzTVz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 3, 2014 Scottish #IndyRef YES still struggling to win over women. See chart from Ipsos-MORI pic.twitter.com/G8oCJYx2AA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…
Good chart from Electoral Calculus http://t.co/feJQJBE8NT showing polling trends since GE2010 pic.twitter.com/dDS86kDbSi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 3, 2014 At the weekend Martin Baxter who’s been running Electoral Calculus for nearly 20 years produced his latest polling average and projections for the general election. The good news for the Tories is that there was slight edge back to them. Instead of a LAB majority of 66 being projected this slipped back to 58. The bad news that they are still…
Where PB goes others follow At the start of the year I introduced the weekly PB YouGov polling average so we could better track the way opinion was moving and isolate key segments for analysis. Well the idea has caught on and today we see the launch of the Populus online monthly polling for the FT based on an overall sample of 14,000. The February Populus/FT numbers are in the interactive chart above as is the latest PB YouGov weekly…